Despite their recent struggles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still control their playoff destiny. They have the best quarterback in the NFC South and a favorable schedule, positioning them for run at a division title.
It would be easy to doubt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now.
When a team has consecutive home games against the two worst squads in the NFC South, it's expected to win at least one of them, if not both.
Instead, Tampa Bay lost to the New Orleans Saints, which came in at 2-10, and the Atlanta Falcons, who ventured to Raymond James Stadium at 4-9.
The Falcons' loss hurt the most. Tampa led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and had Atlanta set up with a 3rd and 28 on the last possession., Somehow the Bucs lost the game and, potentially, first place in the division.
For some, such as ESPN analyst Damien Woody, it was the type of loss that a team can't come back from.
Maybe Woody is right. But make no mistake, Tampa still controls its playoff destiny. ESPN has the Buccaneers with a 55% chance to win the NFC South and the Carolina Panthers taking up the remaining 45%.
That probability will go up or down depending on what the Panthers do against the Saints Sunday in the Superdome. If Carolina wins, the Bucs will be a full game back of the Panthers. If Carolina loses, the teams will be tied going into their Dec. 21 matchup in Charlotte.
The schedule is the biggest thing working in Tampa's favor.
Somehow, the NFL schedule lined up where the Buccaneers have both of their regular-season matchups against Carolina scheduled within the last three weeks of the season.
Sandwiched between those two matchups is a Dec. 28 game against the Dolphins in Miami. The Dolphins have won five of their last six, but any 6-7 team is beatable, so the opportunity will be there for Tampa Bay.
Along with the schedule, it's important to note that the Buccaneers have the best quarterback in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield was on fire to start the season, at one point having thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
But Mayfield has struggled for the past month, having thrown five interceptions in his last four games, including a big one to Atlanta's Dee Alford late in Thursday's loss.
If the Mayfield, who threw more touchdown passes than anybody but Joe Burrow last season, shows up, the Bucs will be just fine. But if the Mayfield, who has struggled during this stretch where the Bucs have lost five of six, shows up, the division might slip away.