The Buccaneers playoff dreams hinge on a surprising Monday Night Football outcome. Learn why a Rams victory is crucial for Tampa Bay's postseason hopes.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been in a free-fall throughout the entire second half of the season. After a 6-2 start, the Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight and enter Week 18 at 7-9. They are on a four-game losing streak following their 20-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins (7-9).
Yet after all that, they still can work their way into the playoffs by winning on Saturday at home against the Carolina Panthers (8-8).
Not so fast, my friends. There is more to the story than meets the eye.
On the surface, that game looks to be winner-take-all in the NFC South. It still can be, but there is one caveat to that and it's why the Buccaneers are going to be rooting hard for the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.
If the Buccaneers defeat the Panthers Saturday, both teams will finish the regular season at 8-9. They will have split their season series and will both be 3-3 in the division. The tiebreaker would come down to common opponents and the Buccaneers would have the edge with a 6-6 record compared to 5-7 for Carolina -- the common opponents are the Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Saints, 49ers, Rams and Seahawks.
All that would be the case if the Buccaneers and Panthers are the only 8-9 teams in the NFC South.
But what would happen if the Falcons win their last two against the Rams and Saints and also finish at 8-9?
For one, it would spell bad news for the Buccaneers because they cannot win a three-way tie in the division.
The reason for that is they would fall out on head-to-head record. In this case, if the Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons all finish 8-9, the first tiebreaker would be each team's record against the others in this mini-group. Carolina would win the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record versus Tampa's 2-2 and Atlanta going 1-3.
Carolina's sweep of Atlanta would be the deciding factor here -- Tampa Bay will have split with Atlanta and Carolina in this scenario.
All that could be a moot point if the Rams get the victory in Atlanta on Monday night. If they do, the Falcons are out of the equation and Saturday's tilt at Raymond James Stadium would then become win-or-go home.
But, if Atlanta wins Monday, then the Buccaneers would need to win Saturday against the Panthers and then root for the Saints to knock off the Falcons Sunday to claim the NFC South.
On the one hand, it's disappointing for the Buccaneers to even be in this position at 7-9. On the other hand, they still have a chance at a home playoff game, even if they'll be entering the playoffs at 8-9.