Getting to fourth down is rarely a guaranteed drive-ender these days in the NFL, even when a team is buried deep in its own end. The trend toward gambling on NFL games has permeated the coaching community as well, and Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid is one of the most prominent coaches embracing this trend. 

It didn’t used to be this way, and NFL expert and New England Patriots columnist Ben Volin did an intriguing breakdown on the trend that included Reid’s numbers. He dubbed Reid “Riverboat Andy” based on the Chiefs being fourth in the league on fourth-down attempts with a total of 17. Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell is the coach most commonly associated with this kind of gamble, but now it’s Reid who’s one of the actual leaders this year. 

Given his 14 successful conversions, Reid is clearly living right. Wisecracks aside, though, Reid is well-positioned for this kind of gamble given that he has quarterback Patrick Mahomes to execute the plays, not to mention a stable of weapons that make it difficult to focus on one guy. 

Mahomes’ running ability doubtless plays into the Chiefs success rate, too, especially since he’s not going to make foolish decisions about when to leave the pocket or how much yardage to shoot for once he escapes. 

“Those are all subjective decisions,” Reid said in Volin’s Sunday notes column. “I thought it was the right thing to do [in the Detroit game], especially when you play a team that scores a lot of points.”

The analytics are a big part of the decision to go for it, of course, but Volin also points out that it’s prominent among bad football teams, with the Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets tied for the lead at 19 fourth-down attempts each. 

For Reid, the shift is profound. Historically, he’s been one of the more conservative coaches in the NFL, with the fewest fourth-down attempts of any team from 2021-2024 with 66.

The Chiefs win over the Lions in Week 6 represents a solid example of Reid’s new openness. The Chiefs went for it on fourth down six times against the Lions and converted four, and part of the decision was undoubtedly related to the high-powered Detroit offense and the Campbell’s knowledge that he wasn’t going to win this game via field goals. 

It’s something to watch tomorrow, along with Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott’s response on both sides of the ball. It’s one of the most fascinating trend in today’s NFL, especially since it’s frequently a game-changer that can alter the course of the season for teams like the Chiefs and Bills.