Pete Crow-Armstrong’s breakout season might have been the story of the year for the Chicago Cubs in 2025.

Before this past season, Armstrong had never put it together offensively. But once the Cubs committed to giving him everyday at-bats in center field — and the room to fail and develop — he took off. Quickly. Overnight, he became one of the most electric outfielders in baseball.

By the All-Star break, PCA had 25 home runs, 71 RBIs, 27 stolen bases, and an .847 OPS. He was named a starting outfielder for the National League. Not bad for a player who had just 10 home runs and an .652 OPS in his first 136 career games before 2025. Nobody — not scouts, not analysts, not fans — saw this level of breakout coming.

But eventually, Armstrong came crashing back down to earth.

From July 25 through September 14, he hit just .184 with one home run and a .521 OPS. Cubs fans — who had briefly talked themselves into an MVP campaign — were suddenly just hoping he could hit enough to stay in the everyday lineup come October.

A two-homer game in the final series of the season helped Crow-Armstrong lock in a 30–30 season. An undeniably impressive feat for a 23-year-old center fielder who also brings Gold Glove-level defense. But as the Cubs shift their focus to 2026, it would be foolish to ignore how alarming the second half really was. It leaves both the fanbase and the front office unsure of exactly what PCA is — and what he’ll be moving forward.

And the projections don’t exactly ease those concerns.

FanGraphs — one of the most trusted forecasting models in the sport — predicts a significant step back. They project Armstrong for a .751 OPS in 2026, only 17 points lower than his final 2025 number, but with dramatically reduced production: 20 home runs, 26 stolen bases, 64 RBIs, and a 3.3 fWAR.

That’s a steep drop from 31 home runs, 35 stolen bases, 95 RBIs, and a 5.4 fWAR. In other words, he’s projected to be only about 60% as valuable.

What might surprise Cubs fans even more is that FanGraphs projects PCA to be nearly identical in value to third baseman Matt Shaw. Shaw’s narrative was the opposite — a brutal first half had the front office eyeing upgrades at the trade deadline, but the rookie became one of the lineup’s steadier bats down the stretch and now looks like he may be settling into the position.

It’s ironic how much the first half of an MLB season can shape a player’s reputation. Cubs fans talk about PCA like a future MVP candidate, while many wanted the team to replace Shaw in free agency. Yet the data suggests both may be equally important to the Cubs’ success in 2026.

Make of that what you will — but I’m not expecting another 30–30 season from Pete Crow-Armstrong next year. He’ll still be valuable, he’ll still be exciting, and he’ll still make plays nobody else can. But some of what we saw in the first half was lightning in a bottle.