Every November, Major League Baseball teams face a simple but important decision: tender a contract to their arbitration-eligible players… or cut them loose.

Players with between three and six years of service time (plus Super Two guys) don’t have guaranteed salaries yet. They’re not free agents, but they’re not locked in either. Teams have to choose:

• Tender the player and commit to negotiating a 2026 salary through arbitration, or
• Non-tender him, instantly making the player a free agent.

That deadline is today — Friday, November 21 at 5 p.m. ET.

Think of it as a league-wide audit of every fringe roster guy, injured contributor, or ballooning arbitration number. Executives look at what a player is projected to earn and ask one question: Is he worth that figure?

For some players, it’s a no-brainer. For others, it’s a math problem. And for a handful, the tender deadline becomes the perfect time to swing a trade — a way to get something for a player who might not fit the roster construction, rather than losing him for nothing.

So as the Chicago Cubs close in on today’s deadline, don’t be surprised if they deal from their catching surplus.

A Logjam Behind the Plate

The Cubs currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster: Carson Kelly, Moisés Ballesteros, Miguel Amaya, and Reese McGuire.

Kelly was the primary starter in 2025 and put together a career year — 17 homers, 50 RBIs, and 98 starts behind the plate.

Ballesteros, the No. 2 prospect in the system and No. 53 in baseball, continues to hit at every level. His 20-game rookie stint in 2025 reinforced that. But his defense lags behind, and evaluators remain split on whether he’ll stay at catcher long term.

Amaya, the assumed backup, appeared in just 28 games. He looked good when healthy, but an oblique strain and an ankle issue kept him sidelined for most of the year, forcing the Cubs to dip into their depth.

And then there’s McGuire. Signed to a minor-league deal, called up in late May, and quietly productive. He hit a career-high nine home runs in 45 games, graded out well defensively (80th percentile blocking, +4 fielding run value), and stabilized the position during a chaotic stretch.

The Decision on McGuire

McGuire is one of four Cubs players who require tender decisions today.

Justin Steele and Javier Assad are automatic tenders. Eli Morgan could go either way but is likely to be kept.

McGuire is where the gray area begins. He’s good enough that the Cubs probably don’t want to cut him loose outright. But are they willing to pay around $2 million (per Spotrac’s projection) for a fourth-string catcher who may not have a real path to playing time in 2026?

That’s the calculus.

And it’s why a trade shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Cubs could tender McGuire and immediately move him to a team in need of catching help. That deal could materialize as soon as today, or sometime before Opening Day.

This is the type of move front offices make when they know a player still has value — just not for them.

The Cubs have a clear blockade at catcher, and they need to sort it out. On a day when the entire league is shuffling rosters and looking for value, Chicago is positioned to be part of that movement.

Cubs fans should keep their heads on a swivel. Catcher trades tend to come quickly, and quietly — and Chicago has the depth to make one happen.