The Lions don’t need a miracle to beat the NFC’s top seed — they just need to follow the blueprint three other teams have already written. And with Detroit clinging to playoff hopes at 8-5, the margin for error has vanished.
Sitting at 8-5, the Detroit Lions remain one game out of a playoff spot, but a win over the Los Angeles Rams this week could go a long way. The Rams are 10-3 and, despite owning the best record in the NFC, still need every win just as badly as Detroit. Right behind them are the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 9-4 San Francisco 49ers. If Los Angeles loses and either Seattle or San Francisco wins, the Rams could fall from the No. 1 seed to the No. 5 seed in a single week.
The Rams have three losses this season. Here’s how each opponent managed to beat them, and what Detroit can learn from it.
Week 3: Eagles 33, Rams 26
Philadelphia leaned into a bend-don’t-break mentality, holding the Rams to six field-goal attempts — a similar approach to what Detroit used last week against Dallas. The Eagles set the tone early, intercepting Matthew Stafford and turning it into a touchdown drive. Los Angeles responded with a touchdown and a field goal to lead 10-7 after the first quarter.
It’s hard to imagine the Eagles winning after trailing 19-7 at halftime, but the key was forcing field goals. Four of the Rams’ first-half scoring drives ended in three points, not seven.
The second half opened poorly for Philadelphia with a fumble, but from there the Eagles outscored Los Angeles 14-7 in the third quarter. The fourth quarter was where they showed the most resilience, blocking two field goals and forcing a turnover on downs. Holding a 27-26 lead in the final seconds, Philadelphia blocked the Rams’ potential game-winning field goal.
The takeaway: Detroit must bend but not break, force at least one or two turnovers and accept that Los Angeles will move the ball. Those boxes were checked last week by the Lions against the Cowboys.
49ers 26, Rams 23 (OT)
San Francisco beat the Rams with a slightly different formula but the same core principles. The 49ers jumped out to a 20-7 lead, controlling pace and forcing the Rams into catch-up mode. They forced only two field-goal attempts but blocked an extra point, showing again that special teams plays can change the game.
Despite recording just one sack, the 49ers forced two fumbles, including one at the goal line. They also went a perfect 3-for-3 on fourth down. Starting fast was key: San Francisco scored touchdowns on its first two drives and finished strong in overtime.
This game was also in Los Angeles, proving the Rams can be beaten on their home field.
Panthers 31, Rams 28
One of the season’s biggest upsets came when Carolina toppled Los Angeles. Bryce Young delivered one of his sharpest performances, going 15 of 20 with three touchdowns. The Panthers played nearly perfect football, forcing Stafford into two interceptions — including one in the red zone. While Carolina failed to turn those turnovers into points, they prevented the Rams from scoring on those drives.
Unlike the Eagles and 49ers, the Panthers didn’t rely on a bend-don’t-break approach. The Rams didn’t attempt a single field goal, scoring four touchdowns. Instead, Carolina’s formula was ball control. The Panthers dominated time of possession by 11 minutes, keeping Stafford off the field. A dynamic rushing attack helped out as the Panthers racked up 164 rush yards. They also converted all three of their fourth-down attempts.
The Blueprint for Detroit
If the Lions can’t generate consistent pressure on Stafford, there are still proven ways to beat the Rams.
Control the ball. Bend, don’t break. Force turnovers. Convert fourth downs. Score early.
Detroit is one of the NFL’s most aggressive teams on fourth down, and that won’t change this week. But if the Lions attempt them, they need to convert at least 75 percent.
The blueprint is already on film. Now it’s up to the Lions to execute it.