Can MSU's perfect start derail their March Madness hopes? Historical data suggests an unexpected trend for the Spartans' early season success.
The Spartans have opened 3-0 for just the fourth time in the last 13 years. And the other 3-0 seasons may not have gone the way you remember — or the way you’d hope.
Any Michigan State fan knows the gauntlet Tom Izzo puts his teams through early. The philosophy is simple: tough opponents build character, teach adversity, and prepare the group for a late-season push. For most of the past decade and a half, that meant early losses. Normally those losses caused some panic, but by March and April, Michigan State usually turned into a well-oiled machine.
But in the last 13 years, MSU has started 3-0 only three times before this season — and those teams didn’t exactly finish as strong as Izzo would’ve wanted. This isn’t about correlation; it’s just about looking at what happened the three times MSU opened hot. Every season and every roster is different, but the historical results are the historical results.
2013–14
MSU opened 3-0 with wins over McNeese State, Kentucky, and Columbia. The Kentucky game was the test — the adversity builder — and MSU pulled it out 78–74. That sparked an 18–1 start, one of the best runs of the Izzo era.
But after that? The Spartans dropped eight of their final 15 games to finish 23–9. Still, that midseason adversity seemed to spark something. MSU ripped through the Big Ten Tournament and made a deep NCAA Tournament run, eventually falling to UConn in the Elite Eight.
This is the best outcome of the 3-0 seasons: an 18–1 start, a Big Ten Tournament title, and an Elite Eight. For most Spartan fans, an Elite Eight is the bare minimum of “success,” but it was still a strong year — even with the late collapse.
2015–16
If you already remember this season, I’m sorry for reopening the wound. If you blocked it out, you were probably better off.
MSU started 3-0 by beating Florida Atlantic, Kansas, and Arkansas–Pine Bluff — with Kansas serving as the big early test. Like 2013–14, the team came out blazing. The Spartans won 13 straight and 16 of their first 17 games.
A midseason three-game skid slowed them down, but MSU responded by winning 10 of its final 11 regular-season games. They entered March as one of the hottest and most complete teams in the country.
Then came another Big Ten Tournament championship. And then came… Middle Tennessee State.
As a 2-seed, MSU got blitzed 90–81 by the 15-seed Blue Raiders in one of the biggest upsets in tournament history. The season went from “national title contender” to “what just happened?” in 40 minutes.
2020–21
The most recent 3-0 start came in the strange, fan-less 2020–21 season — the year after COVID ended the Cassius Winston era prematurely.
MSU opened with wins over Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, and Duke. They pushed the streak to 6-0 before falling apart, losing seven of their next nine games. The Spartans hovered near .500 all season and finished eighth in the Big Ten at 15–11 (9–11 in conference).
They lost in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to Maryland, barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament (some would say just to keep Izzo’s streak alive), and then bowed out to UCLA in the First Four.
Overall
So… is starting 3-0 good? Bad? A curse?
It’s neither. But recent history shows it’s also not a golden ticket.
- MSU is 2-for-3 in Big Ten Tournament titles in seasons when they start 3-0.
- MSU is 3–3 in NCAA Tournament games across those years, including two first-round exits.
A 3-0 start certainly doesn’t doom the Spartans, but it hasn’t reliably signaled greatness either. This year’s team has a long winter ahead before March arrives. If the Spartans can turn this 3-0 beginning into another Big Ten Tournament title — and maybe finally pair it with a deep tournament run — this could be the year the trend breaks in a good way.