The free agency period will officially begin five days after the World Series. That makes now the perfect time to go through some potential free agent fits for the Cubs this offseason. 

In Jim Bowden’s Top 50 free agent rankings, he listed the Cubs as the best fit for several top free agents. One of those players was Houston Astros left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez. Bowden lists the Cubs, Astros, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Padres, and Giants as potential fits for the southpaw this winter. 

But is Valdez really a good fit for the Cubs? Let’s take a look at his 2025 stats, his potential contract, and the potential fit in the Windy City. 

The Player

Valdez will be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the open market this offseason. The left-hander has been one of the biggest workhorse pitchers in the Majors since he broke out six years ago during the shortened 2020 season. 

The 31-year-old has thrown the fifth-most innings (902 ⅓) since the start of the 2021 season. That trails only Logan Webb (968 ⅓), Kevin Gausman (925 ⅔), Jose Berrios (912), and Zack Wheeler (908). 

Valdez has also established himself as one of the game’s top pitchers during these past five years. He has a combined 3.20 ERA since 2021 and has finished top-10 in American League Cy Young voting in three straight seasons (excluding this past year, since voting hasn’t happened yet).  

While Valdez is coming off a down year in 2025, he still put up solid all-around numbers on the mound. He finished with a 3.66 ERA, 187 strikeouts, and two complete games across 192 innings pitched. His second half really hurt his overall numbers on the season (6.05 ERA over his last 10 starts), but it was another strong season for the two-time All-Star. 

The Contract

There’s no doubt that Valdez is going to command top dollars on the open market this offseason. He will want to be paid like the ace he is, and multiple outlets believe that will be the case. 

Spotrac predicts a six-year, $199 million contract for Valdez, while Bowden predicts a six-year, $190 million deal for the Astros pitcher in free agency. Both Spotrac and Bowden believe that the left-hander will seek more than $30 million per year in his next deal.

Either deal would make Valdez the fifth-highest-paid pitcher in baseball. Only Corbin Burnes ($210 million), Max Fried ($218 million), Gerrit Cole ($324 million), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325 million) have a contract currently worth more than $185 million. 

The Fit

Money aside, Valdez would be a fantastic fit for the Cubs. He would give them a workhorse pitcher and an ace atop their rotation. This is the type of pitcher that Chicago desperately needed in the postseason, an ace who can take the ball and do his job. 

However, listing Valdez as a fit for the Cubs came as a bit of a surprise in Bowden’s piece. It would be quite shocking to see Chicago pay $190 million to a pitcher, especially since the front office has never offered a contract of more than $184 million in the team’s history.

On top of that, starting pitching isn’t technically a major need right now. Now, that could change if the Cubs decide to decline Shota Imanaga’s three-year, $57 million club option. But if he returns, Chicago will already have Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton, and Justin Steele as its five-man rotation for the 2026 season. 

The Verdict

Having Valdez a part of a pitching group that consists of Horton, Boyd, Taillon, and Steele would give Chicago one of the best rotations in all of baseball. While all Cubs fans would love to sign the two-time All-Star this offseason, chances are it’s a long shot. 

The Cubs have never given out a contract to a pitcher worth more than $155 million, and the front office is all about finding ways to get players on shorter (higher AAV) deals than longer five or six-year deals. 

For that reason, it’s hard to imagine Valdez signing with the Cubs this winter. It would definitely be nice to get a pitcher of his caliber in Chicago. But he might not be a fit here, especially if the team brings back Imanaga.