The winter trade winds are starting their annual journey across MLB, and they’re definitely swirling at Citi Field. Starter Kodai Senga is the name most frequently mentioned as possible trade bait being offered by the New York Mets, but the specifics of that kind of trade aren’t simple at all. 

Tim Britton of The Athletic did an intriguing breakdown, starting with the fact that the Mets have quantity but not a whole lot of quality in their starting rotation. The middling veteran starters include Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson and Clay Holmes, and some subtraction is clearly in order. 

It makes sense to move Senga, but he comes with an abundance of stats that both enhance and diminish his value. The detractors include Senga's age, which is 33, while the biggest enhancer is that he’s tied for 10th among starters with a 3.00 ERA since debuting in the majors in 2023. 

That’s an arcane stat, but it does have some meaning. There are some quality names like starters Cristopher Sanchez and Corbin Burnes that turn up as comps, but no one else on the list Britton presented was demoted in the middle of a pennant race. 

Britton also offered another intriguing take on his: Senga could end up garnering Cy Young votes, or he could simply flame out and post less than ten starts. The Mets can’t afford the latter, nor can they afford a midseason meltdown, which is why they need to move him. Other comps offered by Britton included starters Brady Singer and Chris Sale, with Singer being the more relevant of the two by far. 

There are several approaches to a possible Senga trade, and another one that makes sense would be to combine Senga with another player to bring back more value. The Mets have other movable pieces like infielders Jeff McNeil and Mark Vientos who might be intriguing to potential trade partners, and this approach could bring back more value in return. 

It’s a complicated puzzle with a lot of potential moving pieces, but it’s important for the GM David Stearns to figure it out. Deals with marquee players take time, whether the Mets are adding someone with another big signing or negotiating a larger trade, but they need to define their approach and clarify the roster picture. 

A Kodai Senga trade isn’t going to solve all their problems, but it could be a solid first move to get the ball rolling and set up some of their other offseason moves.