As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare for the offseason, which has already begun, there will likely be several ways the organization approaches the starting pitching situation.
On paper, the Phillies should still have a decent rotation, but if Zack Wheeler doesn't return at the level he's expected to, Aaron Nola continues to struggle, and Ranger Suarez walks, there might be a situation where the Phillies have one of the more below-average starting rotations in Major League Baseball.
For a team that's been built on its starting pitching and what it can do when it matters most, I have a tough time thinking that's a good plan.
If there's one positive for the Phillies throughout this free agency class, it's the fact that there will be multiple high-end starters available.
That includes Dylan Cease, who MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted would take a deal with the Phillies during the offseason.
“Cease may be the most durable pitcher in baseball, but in recent years he’s alternated between dominating and disappointing. After a 2.20 ERA, second-place Cy Young finish in 2022, Cease followed with a 4.58 ERA. He bounced back to a 3.47 ERA/fourth place Cy finish in ’24, only to revert to a 4.55 ERA this year. You can imagine Cease ranking much higher on this list had those seasons occurred in a different order.
“Though Cease never reached the heights of Snell, he hits free agency about a year younger and without durability concerns. Cease turns 30 in December, and it’s possible some team will overlook his unsightly ERA and sign him long-term. That’s where the MLBTR projection is at present. If something close to $200MM isn’t presented, Cease and Boras may look to sign a two or three-year deal with opt-outs, earn a large salary in ’26, and re-enter the market sans QO and (hopefully) with a 3.50 or better ERA,” they wrote.
Cease is really a tough player to evaluate in some sense. When he's at his best, there's a strong argument to be made that he's one of the better starters in baseball.
However, his lows are very low, and ultimately, something that Philadelphia will likely have to deal with a few times if he lands on this roster.