The Pittsburgh Pirates surprisingly opted to hold onto starting pitcher Mitch Keller at the MLB trade deadline back in July in spite of rampant speculation that the floundering Pirates would move him.
Now, it should be noted that Keller — who signed a five-year, $77 million extension with Pittsburgh in February 2024 — is under contract through 2028, so the Bucs do not have to be in any rush to move the 29-year-old. But this offseason would be as good of a time as any to trade him.
Those years of club control are incredibly beneficial when it comes to the Pirates establishing a price in trade talks, and given the value placed on even slightly above average pitchers in today's game, Keller could fetch a hefty return.
Last month, it was actually revealed that the Baltimore Orioles made the strongest push for Keller before July 30, which indicates discussions could be rekindled this winter.
Of course, much of this depends on the Pirates' willingness to actually move Keller. The Miami Marlins experienced a similar situation with Sandy Alcantara, opting to keep him through the deadline with the likely hope of potentially dealing him in a couple of months.
However, Keller has an extra year of club control than Alcantara, which certainly puts Pittsburgh in a much more favorable position when it comes to leverage.
The Orioles, though, are in dire need of starting pitching. Outside of Trevor Rogers, who has been brilliant in 14 starts this season, Baltimore's rotation is a disjointed mess. The best ERA outside of Rogers is Tomoyuki Sugano, who comes in at 4.41. Several arms are well over 5.00.
Taking that into consideration, the O's could be desperate to make a move, and if they aren't keen on spending big on the free-agent market, Keller and his palatable $15.4 average annual salary could represent a terrific option.
Keller isn't an ace by any stretch, owning a lifetime 4.52 ERA. But he has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, logging ERAs of 4.21, 4.25 and 4.21, respectively. He made an All-Star appearance in 2023, and his solid control is definitely attractive.
It should be noted that Keller's strikeout numbers have dipped considerably the last couple of years, which could be alarming to prospective trade partners (like the Orioles). But it's also more of a reason why the Pirates should seriously consider jettisoning him as soon as possible.
Don't be surprised if Pittsburgh and Baltimore revisit the idea of a Keller trade in November. Keller turns 30 next April and doesn't really fit the Bucs' timeline at this stage, so moving him would absolutely make sense.