With each passing day, it feels like the Red Sox are getting closer to shipping outfielder Jarren Duran out of town.

Here’s what MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said on X Tuesday afternoon:

“Sources: Royals are evaluating the trade market for outfielders during this week's GM Meetings. The Angels and Red Sox are among the possible trade partners.”

If you’re following the tea leaves, you know Duran is the outfielder the Red Sox would be offering in this hypothetical scenario.

On Monday, for example, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale released a sprawling piece entitled “10 biggest MLB hot stove questions, from top free agents to latest trade rumors.”

And while Nightengale’s track record on these types of things isn’t exactly stellar, he is among the most veteran reporters on the national beat.

If he’s hearing whispers, there’s almost certainly smoke. Is there an accompanying fire to any of these? That remains to be seen.

But for our purposes, let’s focus in on one of the three Red Sox nuggets he dropped.

This coming from his subsection, “Who’s on the MLB trade block?”

“Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran: The Red Sox believe that they need an upgrade over Duran, and that he needs a fresh start. It would a huge surprise if he’s in Fort Myers, Fla., come spring training.”

Not exactly a ton there, but a throwaway line like this within the context of everything we know about Duran’s place in Boston’s outfield pecking order might just tell you everything you need to know about where things are headed. Add in Morosi’s report from Tuesday, and now the hot stove season is cooking with gas.

Last Wednesday, my guys over on the “Play Tessie” podcast cooked up a hypothetical Duran trade, who was in the news last Monday after he and the team agreed on a renegotiated deal for 2026 that will pay him $7.7 million with incentives.

Here’s what Sammy James cooked up on the podcast:

RED SOX RECEIVE:

- 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
- C Ramon Ramirez

ROYALS RECEIVE:

- OF Jarren Duran

…Royals, you say? Perhaps Sammy’s scenario was coming from some information he had heard, and wasn’t just fantasy land talk show conjecture.

You might be thinking, ‘Aren’t the Red Sox getting hypothetically fleeced in this deal?’

But then you realize Ramirez is Kansas City’s ninth-ranked prospect via MLB Pipeline. With catching depth in the organization not being a strong suit for the Red Sox, a deal including a 20-year-old prospect at a position of need could be enticing, especially when you consider Duran might be the odd man out.

And Pasquantino is no slouch, either, sporting a 4.9 career WAR at first. We all know Boston’s issues at that corner infield spot, so that helps you there as well.

According to a poll on X, 55.9% of Play Tessie’s audience believe the Royals would say no to this deal. I think I agree. If Boston sweetens the pot just a little more, maybe by throwing in a young developmental arm, I think this type of move could get done.

As we’ve discussed here previously, that new deal makes Duran ripe for a trade.

Also last Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe added fuel to that Druan fire on the Foul Territory YouTube channel:

“I think a trade of an outfielder is very likely. And if you look at the outfielders, the Red Sox have, Jarren Duran kind of feels like the odd man out more than the other guys. And it will depend on once the Red Sox start talking to other teams, who teams like and what they're willing to give up. And that will shape a lot of this, because the Red Sox like Jarren Duran, and they'd be happy to keep Jarren Duran if they can make the roster in the outfield work.

“So if some team wants to blow them out of the water for Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony can go play right field. But if somebody wants Jarren Duran, then Roman Anthony will play left. The wild card here is [Cedddanne] Rafaela, who is amazing at center field, [but] really streaky at the plate. So I don't think they'll trade Rafaela, because as an elite defender alone, his contract is really team friendly. So, you know, I think they'll keep Rafaela. I can't completely rule out that he's the one traded. But, you know, with going with Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and then one of Duran and Abreu, that's a pretty good outfield.”

There’s a lot of ways to read the news from last week on Duran’s new contract.

Boston held an $8 million option on Duran for 2026, but they elected to negotiate a new contract instead, avoiding arbitration. The deal includes up to $75,000 in bonuses based on plate appearances, a mark he’s sure to hit as the 29-year-old has only missed seven games over the past two seasons.

That is unless Duran is relegated to a reduced role for his sixth year in the majors, which is a high possibility given how crowded the Red Sox outfield is at the moment.

With Ceddanne Rafaela’s incredible play in center field earning him his first career Gold Glove, and with Wilyer Abreu winning his second Gold Glove in only his second season in the bigs, that just leaves one outfield spot open for everyday players. And with Roman Anthony spending 36 games in right during his rookie season, logic would suggest that the AL Rookie of Year finalist would grab that last spot in the everyday lineup, keeping the designated hitter spot open for matchup flexibility for righty-lefty scenarios.

After finishing eighth in AL MVP voting in 2024, Duran took a step back in 2025, batting just .256 with an on-base percentage of .332, slugging .442 with an OPS of .774. And while he led the league in triples (13) for the second straight season and knocked in 9 more RBI than the season prior (84), his 169 strikeouts were a career high.

For the baseball nerds that know how wins above replacement works, he went from an 8.7 in 2024 to a 4.7 in 2025. That mark still looks good on paper, but losing four points from his WAR year-to-year tells you everything about the drop off he had just one year removed from his breakout.

All of that’s to say - Duran is over qualified to be a platoon outfielder. There’s plenty of teams around the majors that Duran could start for tomorrow. And as he’s set to make less than $8 million in 2026, it’s an attractive contract to take on for a team that might need that last missing piece in the outfield to make a playoff push. Bring in Duran on a one-year prove it deal, and hope he balls out at the level he did in 2024 to set-up a potential big payday for himself ahead of the 2027 season and beyond.

As I’ve written about before, the Red Sox are in desperate need of more pitching depth in their starting rotation. And with Lucas Giolito possibly moving on this offseason, their need for a true No. 2 starter has grown even more than it was before. Duran is someone who was rumored to be a part of deadline deals for both Twins starter Joe Ryan and Padres starter Dylan Cease. Would Minnesota be willing to re-engage on a trade discussion with Boston that involves Duran and others being shipped to the midwest in return for the final two years of Ryan’s team-friendly contract?

Stay locked in to Roundtable for all the latest as this situation unfolds.

Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.