The Detroit Tigers find themselves in a position they have not held in more than a decade: in control of the American League Central and with a chance to secure one of the two coveted first-round byes. With about two weeks left in the regular season, Detroit stands at 85-65, a 6½-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians, whose record is 78-71. Cleveland’s elimination number is 7.
Hard to believe that the Guardians are still in the race, despite their overall run differential (-31) but that number does not matter, what matters is what the Tigers have done in the second half. Detroit is 26-27 while Cleveland is 32-22, where they also have a better run differential, (+14)
They’ll host Cleveland for three at Comerica Park starting tonight, then finish their home schedule against Atlanta. Their final six games are all on the road: three more against Cleveland, then three against Boston.
The rotation lines up
Casey Mize starts tonight followed by Jack Flaherty on Wednesday, and Tarik Skubal on Thursday. Skubal exited his recent start with discomfort in his left side but was cleared to make his next start. Their performances in this Cleveland series will be critical.
Cleveland still charging
The Guardians have won nine of their last ten and are trying to close the gap quickly. For Cleveland to stay alive in both the division and bye races, they need at least two wins in Detroit this week, ideally a sweep. Anything less puts pressure back on them for the season’s final stretch.
What Detroit must do
- Take two of three (or sweep) the Cleveland series at home.
- Beat Atlanta in their final home stand.
- Avoid costly losses on the road: three games against Cleveland and three against Boston.
- Compare favorably in tie-breaker scenarios, which could include head-to-head and run differential.
Stakes of a bye
A first-round bye means skipping the Wild Card Series and beginning postseason play in the Division Series. It allows extra rest for starters, gives the bullpen breathing room, and helps manage injuries for a long playoff push. For Detroit, it would mean optimal alignment of their rotation (Skubal, Mize, Flaherty) and preserving health going into October.
Magic Number Explainer
What is an elimination number? It’s the total wins by one team plus losses by another needed to render the second team unable to overtake the first.
Current standings:
- Detroit: 85-65.
- Cleveland: 78-71.
- Elimination number for Cleveland: 7
What it means for the bye:
- Detroit must clinch the division first.
- Then they need to hold or exceed the win total of the teams vying for the top two records in the AL.
- That will require not just winning their remaining games, but also hoping contenders drop some.
Contenders for the Top-Two Seeds
- Toronto 88-62
- Detroit 85-65
- New York Yankees 83-67 (2 games back)
- Seattle Mariners 82-68 (3 games back)
- Houston Astros 82-69 (3 1/2 games back)
It's simple, the Tigers control a large part of its own destiny: beat Cleveland, handle Atlanta, and survive the road stretch. With a little help (as it always takes near the finish), they could be looking at not just a division crown, but the more comfortable path through the postseason.