It's not particularly rare that a team plays an individual opponent in the postseason. This is the second year in a row in which Detroit has had the "honor" of having to play the Cleveland Guardians in October, but you rarely see two teams become this familiar with each other over such a short stretch. By the end of the series, Detroit and Cleveland will have played each other at least eight times in two weeks. There has not been a significant amount of roster turnover during that time. Everyone's gotten to know each other pretty well. One would think that the more times a lineup sees a pitching staff, the more likely they are to be able to square them up. That may be true in the case of Cleveland, who hasn't exactly put up gangbuster numbers, but has seen Tarik Skubal better over his last two outings than they did the first two times he faced them this season. In an ideal world, Detroit has become familiar enough with Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee that they'll be able to hit them a little bit in this series. It may be wishful thinking.
I'm going to keep driving home the message that everything resets once you get to the postseason. With that said, I'm not one of these analytics weirdos who believe that momentum isn't a thing. Momentum exists in sports. We saw it last year with the Tigers when they entered the postseason, and we're seeing it again this year with Cleveland. The one thing I'm certain of is that a Cleveland Guardians team playing at home against the Tigers is going to be completely unafraid. This is a team that has been playing with nothing to lose for months, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. As well as they've played down the stretch, I think it's foolish to believe that this is an unwinnable series for Detroit.
Back in July, when the Guardians were in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, Detroit swept them at Progressive Field. How did they do it? By winning low-scoring games with great pitching and timely hitting. That's how they won that series, and that's how you win in October. The separation between these teams is not particularly wide. They finished with the same record in the regular season, which indicates that there isn't much of a gap to begin with. Still, when they play Cleveland, the Guardians have taken advantage of the opportunities that Detroit hasn't.
There are 1 million different ways that this series could go. If Tarik Skubal has one of his worst outings in game one, you can start planning Cleveland's trip to Seattle for the ALDS. However, assuming things aren't too out of the ordinary, a heavy majority of the responsibility will fall on Detroit's offense, particularly the heart of their lineup. They didn't do that over the latter stretch of the season, and it's a big reason why they had such a historic collapse. From an age standpoint, guys like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter are still pretty young players. But on this team, they are essentially veterans. This is their second time in the postseason. If they don't produce, Detroit will lose.