The NBA Cup resumes this season for the third time since its inception. Oklahoma City disappointed in last year’s NBA Cup Finals by losing 97-81 to the Milwaukee Bucks. It was an especially tough game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored a mere 21 points on 8-of-24 shooting and had more turnovers than assists. 

But the past is the past, and Oklahoma City enters the upcoming tournament as the betting favorite. Can they avenge last season’s loss and finish 2025 with another trophy? 

NBA Cup Format 

There are six groups that each contain five teams. From Oct. 31 through Nov. 28, teams will play one game against every other team in their group for a total of four games. Here is the Thunder’s Group Play schedule:

• Nov. 7 at Utah
• Nov. 14 at Sacramento
• Nov. 26 versus Minnesota
• Nov. 28 versus Phoenix

Winners of each group are determined by record across those four contests. If teams within a group are tied in record, then tiebreakers progressively move from head-to-head to point differential to total points scored to last year’s regular season record. 

The six group winners advance to the Knockout Rounds, along with a pair of wild card teams. These two slots are filled by an East and West team that had the best Group Play record among teams that finished second in their respective group. 

Once the second round begins, it’s an eight-team, single-elimination tournament just like the Elite Eight during college basketball’s March Madness tournament. 

Biggest NBA Cup Threats to Thunder

Oklahoma City remains the best and most consistent team in the NBA, and its Group Play schedule is extremely favorable. Hosting the Wolves in Paycom Center should be the Thunder’s only real test during this stage. 

If the Thunder advance to the Knockout Rounds, the following teams are the biggest threats to topple Oklahoma City based on how well they match up and their likelihood of surviving Group Play. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs received a favorable draw, as their section consists of Atlanta, Indiana, Toronto and Washington. With Tyrese Haliburton injured, only the Hawks appear to be a serious roadblock to overcome. If the Cavs do prevail in Group Play, then their well-rounded, versatile roster is capable of going toe-to-toe with the Thunder. Look for Lonzo Ball’s defense to be a major X Factor. Cleveland wouldn’t be favored across a seven-game series, but they have a good chance of beating Oklahoma City in a sudden-death matchup, especially given their elite 3-point shooting. 

New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson and company also have a relatively easy draw: Miami, Milwaukee, Chicago and Charlotte. The Knicks feature one of the best offenses in the NBA, and management improved their defensive upside by signing versatile forward Guerschon Yabusele during the offseason. New York has enough star power and 3-point shooting to overcome Oklahoma City’s rabid defense, and they might be able to do enough on the other side of the court for one game to pull off the upset. 

LA Clippers: They share a group with Dallas, Memphis, New Orleans and the Lakers. It looks challenging, but Kyrie Irving and potentially LeBron James will be sidelined. Cooper Flagg is also a rookie trying to find his footing, while the Grizzlies must reinvent their offense after trading away Desmond Bane. If the Clippers take care of business in Group Play, then their defense and depth pose problems for the Thunder. Kawhi Leonard remains a big-game superstar, too. 

Notable teams not included: Oklahoma City’s main rivals in the West (excluding the Clippers) noticeably didn’t make the cut because of their schedules. Group West C contains Denver, Houston, Golden State, San Antonio and Portland, which is an absolute bloodbath. There’s no predicting the victor, and a wild card selection from that clump seems unlikely with everyone pummeling each other.