Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters Opening Night with an average of 31.3 points per game over his past 232 regular season games. He is coming off the first scoring title of his career, and online sportsbooks have him listed as the frontrunner to once again claim the accolade. 

According to the implied probability of his betting odds, Gilgeous-Alexander owns a 37% chance to win the scoring title this season. Will the superstar continue his reign of terror? Here are the three biggest threats standing in Gilgeous-Alexander’s path. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo is the main obstacle to overcome. His shot diet means the superstar is highly efficient and racks up free throws, which give him an extremely high floor and ceiling. 

Milwaukee’s roster also lacks offensive options outside of Antetokounmpo. The next best scoring options are Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma and Cole Anthony, which isn't ideal.

Antetokounmpo must put this team on his shoulders and arguably carries the most responsibility in the NBA. Overall, he has cleared 30 points per game in each of the previous three seasons, and his volume will probably reach career-high levels. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the former Finals MVP notch 32 points per game this upcoming season. 

Joel Embiid

When healthy, Embiid has an argument for best scorer in the league. During the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, he averaged a combined 33.7 points per game across 105 contests. 

But he’s never healthy, and Philadelphia will manage his minutes. The 76ers also have 16 back-to-back games this season, and Embiid isn’t playing back-to-back matchups. That means he’s already at a ceiling of 66 games. 

The minimum to qualify for the scoring title is 58 games, although there is a loophole. A player can still win the title with fewer than 58 games if their point total divided by 58 still beats the top contender. 

For example, if Embiid scores 1700 points across 50 games, that’s an average of 34 points per game. But his 1700 points would actually be divided by 58 for scoring title purposes, thus slashing his adjusted average to 29.3 points per game. 

In other words, Embiid can technically beat Gilgeous-Alexander despite missing a ton of games, but it requires Embiid to have a monster average – likely somewhere around 36 points per game. That’s not probable, but it’s possible. 

Luka Doncic

Doncic has already recorded 33.9 points per game in a season despite playing next to Kyrie Irving, who siphoned plenty of possessions from Doncic. Therefore, the fact that LeBron James and Austin Reaves need significant on-ball reps doesn’t exclude Doncic from winning the scoring title. 

He also slimmed down over the summer and currently has the best combination of skill and fitness in his career. If Doncic hits his triples and gets to the rim like he used to, then he’s a major threat to reach 32 points per game.