Chet Holmgren was creeping into All-NBA territory before suffering a fractured hip last November. 

Despite only having 22 regular season games to shake off the rust, psychologically move past the injury and figure out how to play next to Isaiah Hartenstein, Holmgren still managed to lead the playoffs in total plus-minus and was clearly the best defender out there. 

He now has had a full offseason to recover, and the sky’s the limit based on his tools. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said it best at 2025 Thunder Media Day: 

“Everyone in the world that watches basketball can see that Chet isn't even a fraction of the player that he's going to be. He's made to play basketball. And he’s made to be successful at basketball.. On top of all the things that are God given and you can’t teach, he has a work ethic, he’s driven and he wants way more for himself.. The world is his oyster. He can do whatever he wants.” 

- Gilgeous-Alexander at 2025 Thunder Media Day

Holmgren’s potential is immense, but how can he actually approach his ceiling? These three areas are great places to start for the former second overall pick. 

Ball-Handling 

After rewatching every postseason turnover for Holmgren, the main takeaway was his lackluster handle. 

Holmgren’s dribbling looked too casual and too far away from his body. Factor in the reality that the basketball needs to travel a further vertical distance because of his height, and it was easy for defenders to either poke the ball away or pick his pocket. He also drove in a straight line far too often instead of adding horizontal movement via crossovers. 

Essentially, Holmgren was predictable and couldn’t shake defenders in the slightest. He needs to become more comfortable at dribbling the basketball, which stems from a tighter, more diverse handle. 

Making strides in this area would significantly open up his offensive game by letting him become a more reliable scorer. 

Post-Ups 

Holmgren only had 20 post-up possessions across 32 games last regular season and scored an abysmal 0.55 points per possession, according to NBA.com. 

He’s never truly experimented in this area likely because he lacks the strength to fight for positioning and move centers off the block. 

Enter Boston Celtics legend Kevin McHale. Despite having a skinny frame, the Hall of Famer was one of the most dominant post players ever due to his massive wingspan, incredible footwork, mobility and toughness. Sound familiar? Holmgren is currently leagues away from matching his footwork, but it’s not difficult to squint at the Thunder big man and see him incorporating some of McHale’s moves into his arsenal. 

That’s not to say that Holmgren should become a full-time post player, but rather that it would be a nice occasional move if a guard or wing switches onto him. Holmgren must find ways to utilize his length advantage around the basket, and improving as a post player facilitates this goal while adding a new wrinkle to his two-man game with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

Shooting Consistency

Holmgren’s efficiency is currently in a Jekyll and Hyde situation. He’s a career 37.2% shooter from deep during the regular season, yet plummets to 28.4% in the playoffs. 

Fatigue is definitely a major factor, as Holmgren’s shot gets flatter and shorter as the season progresses. He also seems to hesitate sometimes when his shot is off instead of launching with confidence and rhythm. 

It’s absolutely vital that Holmgren improves his consistency because Oklahoma City becomes unbeatable when he’s reliably spacing the court. Think that’s hyperbole? The Thunder are 15-0 in the playoffs when Holmgren shoots at least 33% on triples compared to 7-11 when he is below 33%. 

That’s not even an unfair expectation for him, as 36% was league average efficiency on 3-point attempts last season. 

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