The calendar is just now flipping to October, but No. 18 Florida State already finds itself in a must-win situation. The Seminoles host No. 3 Miami on Saturday night for their annual rivalry game. Despite being so early in the year, the matchup is packed with postseason implications for FSU.
The big picture is straightforward. The chances of making the College Football Playoff or the ACC Championship Game drop dramatically with a loss. Chances at each already took a hit after FSU lost to Virginia last Friday, but a win against the Hurricanes would push the Seminoles back in the right direction. They wouldn't control their own destiny, but the path would be clearer.
At 3-1, FSU is unlikely to miss the postseason entirely, as it did in 2024. But making a lesser bowl game isn't enough for a program with a national championship pedigree. Fewer than two years ago, FSU was in the driver's seat to make the four-team college football playoff before an injury to its star quarterback swayed the selection committee to leave the Seminoles out.
Now, with a 12-team playoff bracket, the standard for success is to be in that conversation. That road runs directly through Tallahassee on Saturday night.
College Football Playoff Rankings
Saving the ACC Championship picture for later, let's first examine the College Football Playoff. FSU got a resume-boosting win when it downed Alabama in the Week One opener. FSU's loss to UVA, however, seems to have taken away much of the respect earned from that initial game.
Despite losing to FSU less than a month ago, 3-1 Alabama is up to No. 10 in the AP Top 25. The Seminoles, following their upset loss on the road, are down to No. 18.
If Norvell's squad is going to restore its reputation, FSU needs another marquee win. Unfortunately for the Noles, this Saturday may be the only chance remaining. Miami is the only ranked team left on FSU's schedule.
With the SEC's Florida Gators currently in crisis mode, even winning that heated rivalry game later in the season may not do much to sway anyone's opinion of the Seminoles.
After UVA entered the rankings this week, Miami will be the third and currently final opportunity for FSU against a ranked opponent. If all three stay ranked, a 10 - or 11-win team with a 2-1 record against Top 25 teams is almost certainly in the playoff picture. Switch that record against ranked opponents to 1-2 and the Noles have little argument in their favor.
Automatic Berth for ACC Champs
The other avenue for advancement is the ACC Championship Game. The winner of the game automatically qualifies for the College Football Playoff, as do the winners of the SEC, Big Ten and Big XII championship games.
If FSU can just get there, it effectively becomes a play-in game. However, the path to the ACC title game is already tough after losing the opener to UVa. If FSU loses to Miami, that path narrows to the point that chaos elsewhere is the only way FSU earns a berth.
No. 17 Georgia Tech is already 2-0 in the ACC, good for first in the conference. The Yellow Jackets don't have any ranked teams remaining on their schedule and will be favored in the majority, if not all, of their ACC games through the end of the year.
Miami is the No. 3 team in the country, and while it hasn't played an ACC game yet, it will almost certainly be favored in all eight of them, as it is this weekend visiting FSU. If FSU loses to Miami this weekend - thus giving the Hurricanes the head-to-head tiebreaker - then the Hurricanes would have to lose three of their last seven ACC games for FSU to leapfrog them in the standings.
Crazier things have happened in college football, but that outcome is unlikely.
Meanwhile, Louisville, UVa, Cal and Duke have all started 1-0 or 2-0 in the ACC. FSU is already one game behind all but Virginia (2-0 ACC), as the Cavaliers would also have a tiebreaker over the Seminoles.
FSU does not play UL, Cal or Duke this year, so there is no chance to get a double jump in the standings by dealing one of them a loss in the same instance as gaining yourself a win.
As it stands, FSU does not control its own destiny in conference. However, many of the teams ahead of them in the rankings play each other. There will be opportunities to catch up. For that to be realistic, however, FSU needs a win on Saturday. Otherwise, the Seminoles will be in a hole that is likely inescapable after just two conference games.
No matter which road FSU wants to take to the College Football Playoff, Miami is the barrier blocking the path.
Saturday night at Doak Campbell Stadium is a must-win for FSU if the Seminoles want to return to the top of the game.
FSU and Miami kick off at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN this Saturday, Oct. 4.
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