COLUMBIA, Mo. – No. 15 Mizzou football is set to take on No. 10 Vanderbilt for the Tigers' second top-15 matchup of the season. All eyes will be on FirstBank Stadium, as College Gameday heads to Nashville to host the nation's game of the week.
Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea and quarterback Diego Pavia have led the program to a magical 6-1 record, and a No. 10 ranking in the AP Top 25, the program's highest ranking since 1947. They're fresh off a top 15 victory against LSU, and are 4-0 at home on the season.
The matchup has serious playoff implications, as Vanderbilt is projected the 11 or 12 seed by many, which Mizzou would step into should the Tigers upset the Commodores Saturday.
Here's which key matchups Mizzou needs to focus on to walk out of Nashville with a victory.
Eli Stowers vs Mizzou's pass coverage
Missouri's defense has allowed 67 total receiving yards to tight ends across three Southeastern Conference games this season, but Vanderbilt's tight ends average 78.4 yards per game.
"This is really the first team we've come across where they use a lot of the tight ends," Mizzou linebacker Josiah Trotter said. "They're very versatile... especially a group that has a tight end like Eli Stowers, you know, he's gonna be the best tight end we come across this year."
Stowers is Pavia's favorite target and best friend, and leads the team with 28 receptions and 355 receiving yards, but he's not the Commodores only threat.
"They have two great tight ends, so I feel like that's a little bit of why," Mizzou safety Marvin Burks Jr. said. "You know, they go to their tight ends a lot."
Senior Cole Spence has only played three games this season, but has racked up seven catches for 101 receiving yards in two games against Alabama and LSU, outperforming Stowers in the box score.
It'll take a collective effort from Trotter, Burks and the rest of Missouri's tight end defenders to slow down Stowers and Spence. The two elite units are set to clash, and one will have to break.
The possession battle
Vanderbilt is undefeated when having a longer time-of-possession than its opponent, and has won the time-of-possession battle in every win aside from a 70-21 beatdown over Georgia State. Their lone loss of the season came at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who had the ball for almost 15 minutes of game time longer than the Commodores.
The same can be said for Mizzou, whose lone loss – and loss of possession battle – is to the Tide, who held the ball for 17:06 minutes longer than the Tigers.
Mizzou and Vanderbilt both make their bread-and-butter through the ground game on lengthy drives. The two programs are tied for first in the SEC with 22 rushing touchdowns, and are top-3 in both rushing yards and yards per carry.
Part of winning this battle lies in the hands of Beau Pribula, who's thrown four interceptions in his last two games, and seven overall on the season. Pribula and the Tigers have to play smart and value every possession immensely – one wrong turn can lead to their eventual demise.
Containing Pavia's legs
Diego Pavia is the SEC's second-leading rusher among quarterbacks with 438 yards. He's unlocked a dynamic rushing fold to Vanderbilt's offense alongside Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young, helping make the Commodores a frightening threat for opposing front seven's.
He's a tough runner downfield, and elusive in the pocket.
"We just got to execute, do our job," Trotter said. "Rally to the football. It's hard to make a lot of guys miss when everyone's running to the football."
Mizzou has held opposing quarterbacks Jalon Daniels, LaNorris Sellers, Ty Simpson and Jackson Arnold to 18 combined rushing yards in its Power Four matchups this season, with Daniels leading the pack with 25 in Week 2.
Pavia averages 62.6 rushing yards per game, and shutting him down forces the Commodores to air out the ball more. Their lone loss of the season to Alabama was also the highest passing attempts (35) they've had all season.
Shutting down Pavia's portion of the ground game gives the Tigers a significant advantage to victory.