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    Bryan Driskell
    Bryan Driskell
    Oct 17, 2025, 14:19
    Updated at: Oct 17, 2025, 14:19

    Irish Breakdown makes predictions for the matchup between Notre Dame and USC

    The 13th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) and the 20th-ranked USC Trojans (5-1) square off in the latest installment of one of the best rivalries in college football. It's a huge, playoff resume building opportunity for both teams.

    Location: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
    Date: Saturday - October 18
    Time: 7:30 PM ET
    Network: NBC/Peacock
    Line: Notre Dame -9.5; O/U: 60.5

    Here are the Irish Breakdown predictions for the ND/SC game.

    BRYAN DRISKELL, OWNER

    Prediction: Notre Dame 31, USC 24

    Earlier in the week I had this as a more convincing win for Notre Dame, something like 41-24. For all of the talk about how the Notre Dame defense would stop the potent USC offense, I think the bigger question is how does the USC defense stop the Notre Dame offense. USC is certainly improved under D'Anton Lynn, but barring the offensive line for the Irish playing poorly I don't see how USC keeps the offense in check in a normal game setting.

    Notre Dame should have an advantage in the trenches, they certainly had an advantage from a skill players standpoint and CJ Carr is the best quarterback USC will have played this season. While the Notre Dame defense has its hands full with the potent USC offense, if Chris Ash is smart and turns the defense loose they should be able to make enough stops to allow its own offense to win the game. 

    The problem is this game is going to be wet and windy, and I'm not sure either offense will be able to run its system in a normal fashion. Now it becomes about who can run the ball better and who can avoid the weather related mistakes and turnovers. It somewhat serves as a neutralizer, and without Gabriel Rubio (elbow injury) it could be harder for the Irish to slow down the much improved USC run game. In the end, I still believe Notre Dame is the better team no matter the circumstances and the Irish win their first close game of the season.

    VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

    Prediction: Notre Dame 37, USC 24

    This feels about right when you look at how this rivalry has gone lately. Since 2017, the Irish have averaged about 37 points per game against Southern Cal, and there’s no reason to think that trend changes now. This year’s matchup sets up perfectly for Notre Dame, especially with rain in the forecast on Saturday. Wet, messy conditions always favor the more physical team, and that’s Notre Dame to a tee. Their run game should control the clock and wear down an SC defense that hasn’t exactly been known for toughness. CJ Carr won’t need to throw it 40 times, just manage the game, make a few big plays, and let the Irish line take over. Add it all up, and the weather, history, and style of play all point in the same direction. The Irish grinding out another classic win over the Trojans.

    TREVOR TROWBRIDGE, STAFF WRITER

    Prediction: Notre Dame 34, USC 24

    Let's face it, USC hasn't had success inside of Notre Dame stadium at night in recent years. Since 2011, every home game for the Irish in the battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh has been played at night; the Trojans have only won one of those matchups and that was in 2011. Notre Dame's offense has struggled sustaining and finishing drives, at times, against Boise State and NC State. This weekend, Mike Denbrock's unit can't afford to leave points out on the field and I think we see an offense that resembles the one we saw against Texas A&M, Purdue and Arkansas. 

    The defense will have to continue it's impressive streak against one of the best statistical offenses in the country. USC ranks No. 3 in points per game, No. 2 in yards per game and No. 1 in yards per play. Head coach Lincoln Riley had a lot of success in two of the three years he faced Al Golden. It's now Chris Ash's turn to cement his name in this historic rivalry. The defense will have to continue playing like it did against Boise State and NC State if they want to contain this high-powered USC offense. 

    I think Notre Dame jumps on USC early, but like we've seen in this rivalry many times before, USC won't go away. The second half will be crucial in this game and finishing for both the offense and defense will be imperative. Notre Dame's defense hasn't allowed a second half point in three weeks; USC's offense, in the last three games, has scored 60 combined points in the last three games. The second half has been crucial throughout this matchup, but I expect Notre Dame to continue their trend on defense and get back to the offense we know they're capable of being. The Jeweled Shillelagh stayed in South Bend. 

    ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR 

    Prediction: Notre Dame 38, USC 27

    The Fighting Irish host USC in what may be the final matchup in the greatest intersectional rivalry in College Football on Saturday night in South Bend. In front of what will be a rocking Notre Dame Stadium, the Notre Dame offense will steal the show while the defense does enough to win. Notre Dame Stadium has turned into somewhat of a house of horrors for the Trojans, who haven't won in South Bend since 2011. During the 6-game home winning streak in the series, the average score has been 35.5-19.7, and I expect this year to be no different under the lights. 

    Irish QB CJ Carr has been a big reason why Notre Dame's offense ranks 6th in FEI offensive efficiency, and during Notre Dame's four-game winning streak, he has averaged 277 YPG to go with 10 touchdowns, with his elite football distribution unlocking the playmaking potential of the Irish offense. His Trojan counterpart Jayden Maiava has also had a strong start to the season, but in road games, Maiava's completion percentage is 10% lower and his QB rating is 62 points lower. And when you factor in what could be a cold, wet night? Advantage Irish. 

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