• Powered by Roundtable
    Tyler Jones
    Tyler Jones
    Nov 9, 2025, 23:29
    Updated at: Nov 9, 2025, 23:29

    Sooners hold at No. 11 in AP Poll, but Texas surges ahead and the CFP odds slip to 33%

    The Oklahoma Sooners remained in the No. 11 position in this week’s AP Poll during the bye, after surging seven spots a week prior with a 33-27 win over Tennessee. 

    Notably, Texas, which was behind the Sooners last week and also had an off-week, jumped up three spots, passing Oklahoma in the poll to claim the No. 10 spot.

    Meanwhile, in the Coaches Poll, the Sooners jumped up two spots, while the Longhorns leaped up three spots, putting both teams tied for the No. 10 position.

    The College Football Playoff Poll last week had Texas ahead of Oklahoma at the No. 11 spot, with the Sooners at No. 12. Traditionally, the CFP poll has valued head-to-head matchups more than traditional polls like the AP and Coaches rankings.

    Oklahoma and Texas each currently hold a 7-2 record, with the Longhorns holding the head-to-head advantage over the Sooners via a 23-6 neutral-site win in Dallas on October 11.

    ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a metric that evaluates team efficiency, strength of schedule, and predictive performance, still remains unkind to the Sooners, ranking them at No. 15, with the Longhorns at No. 8.

    Last week, Oklahoma had the 11th-highest odds of making the CFP according to ESPN’s College Football Playoff Predictor model at 36%. This week, the Sooners’ playoff odds have dropped to 33%, and they are now the 15th-most likely team to make the postseason.

    Texas, by contrast, has the 11th-best chance of any team to make the College Football Playoff, with the model currently giving them a 45% chance.

    To punch a playoff ticket, the Sooners almost certainly need to run the table—win all three remaining games—for a 10-2 record that could impress the selection committee, especially with wins over Tennessee, Michigan, and potentially Alabama boosting their profile. 

    Any stumble likely dooms their at-large hopes in the expanded 12-team field.

    While Oklahoma’s schedule looked daunting at the beginning of the year, it looks much more manageable now as they try to make the playoff. 

    After Missouri’s 38-17 loss to Texas A&M on Saturday, the Sooners are set to face just one more ranked team in the AP Top 25 for the remainder of the season, with the Tigers falling out of the poll.

    Oklahoma’s next opponent, Alabama, stayed at the No. 4 position after a 20-9 win over LSU. After traveling to face the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this weekend, the Sooners will return to Norman for back-to-back home matchups to wrap up the regular season against Missouri and LSU.