Win and you’re in.  

That’s the mantra echoing through Norman right now, and for the Oklahoma Sooners, it’s not just a catchy slogan—it’s a blueprint. 

If Brent Venables’ squad can string together three consecutive victories to close the regular season, they’ll punch their ticket to the 12-team College Football Playoff without needing the selection committee to do them any favors. 

No chaos required. No résumé debates. Just take care of business, finish 10-2, and watch the bracket unfold in your favor.

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor currently slots Oklahoma with a 36% chance of making the field—the 11th-highest probability among all FBS programs. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a clear signal: the Sooners control their own destiny. 

Drop one game and the margin for error shrinks dramatically. Drop two, and the dream likely dies. But win out? You’re in. It’s that simple—and that brutal.

The path ahead is one of the toughest closing stretches in the country, a gauntlet that would test any program’s mettle. It starts next week in Tuscaloosa against No. 4 Alabama, continues with a heated rivalry clash at home against No. 23 Missouri, and culminates with a senior day showdown against LSU. 

Three games, three ranked or recently ranked opponents, and zero room for complacency. Yet for all the difficulty, each contest carries a thread of opportunity. These aren’t unwinnable wars—they’re winnable battles, if Oklahoma plays to its identity.

Week 11: at No. 4 Alabama – Upset Potential Reloaded

According to Action Network, the consensus among sportsbooks has Oklahoma as a 12.5 underdog on the road next week against Alabama. However, when the Sooners upset the Crimson Tide last year 24-3, they were 14-point underdogs entering that contest. So in essence, it is winnable for the Sooners to pull-off an upset against Alabama again.

A road win here would not only keep the playoff dream alive but also send a seismic message to the committee: Oklahoma belongs.

Week 12: vs. No. 23 Missouri – Chaos at Quarterback

Looking ahead to the matchup against Missouri, Oklahoma could be facing the Tigers’ third-string quarterback. The Tigers have had some terrible luck this season with keeping their quarterbacks healthy. 

Sam Horn suffered a season-ending broken leg on the very first snap of the season. He was then replaced by Beau Pribula, who looked like a Heisman candidate prior suffering a dislocated left ankle with multiple torn ligaments against Vanderbilt. His status for the rest of the season remains unknown.

So that leaves the Tigers starting a true freshman in Matt Zollers. If Zollers were to get the nod, it would leave Missouri rolling with a quarterback making his first-career road start in Norman. We all saw how well that worked out for Bryce Underwood of Michigan earlier this year (it did not go well).

Week 13: vs. LSU – Motivation Vacuum

Then, the Sooners end the season against unranked LSU. The Tigers will come into that game without much to play for, weeks after the firing of Brian Kelly. It is fair to say that the LSU players are likely to have wandering eyes in the lead-up to the game, as many will be hitting the transfer portal in the days that follow trying to decide where they want to play next.

A win for Oklahoma could lock up 10 victories, and a spot in the College Football Playoff. The contrast in stakes couldn’t be clearer. LSU may have the athletes, but the Sooners will have the hunger. History shows that teams playing with nothing to lose can pull off stunners—but more often, they mail it in. Expect Oklahoma to exploit that disconnect.

The 9-3 Scenario: Possible, But Risky

Could Oklahoma still sneak into the playoff at 9-3? It’s not impossible, but it’s a dangerous tightrope. The selection committee values strength of schedule, and Oklahoma’s résumé would still be decent—featuring wins over Tennessee, and Michigan, plus quality losses to Texas, Ole Miss and possibly Alabama. 

A close defeat in Tuscaloosa (say, within 7 points) could keep the Sooners in the conversation, especially if paired with blowout victories over Missouri and LSU. The safer—smarter—play is to remove all doubt. Win out, finish 10-2, and let the committee argue over your seed, not your inclusion.

The Bottom Line

Oklahoma’s playoff path is crystal clear: beat Alabama, beat Missouri, beat LSU. Do that, and you’re not just in the playoff—you’re hosting a first-round game as a 5-8 seed, with a chance to make a deep run. 

The schedule is brutal, no question. But every obstacle carries a crack of vulnerability: Alabama’s struggles stopping the run, Missouri’s freshman quarterback, LSU’s fractured focus.This isn’t about hoping for help. It’s about seizing control. 

The Sooners have the talent, the coaching, and the opportunity. Now they need the execution. Three games. Three wins. One goal.Win and you’re in. 

Take care of business, and the playoff party starts in Norman.