The inaugural College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings of the 2025 season dropped Tuesday evening, placing the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 12—tantalizingly close yet frustratingly on the outside looking in as the first team out of the expanded 12-team field.

Texas claimed the final power-conference at-large spot at No. 11, despite trailing Oklahoma in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. The CFP committee's methodology prioritizes head-to-head results, and the Longhorns' decisive 23-6 neutral-site victory over the Sooners on October 11 carries significant weight. 

That Red River Shootout, played in front of a raucous Cotton Bowl crowd, highlighted Texas' defensive dominance, holding Oklahoma to under 260 yards of total offense and forcing three turnovers.

Oklahoma's No. 12 ranking excludes them from the current playoff projection due being behind Notre Dame and Texas. The Fighting Irish were the last team in the field among at-large bids, as the No. 10 seed.

Even though Oklahoma is considered the No. 12 ranked team by the committee, they are currently outside of the playoff picture as the five automatic bids are reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions from the Power Four (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12) and the top Group of Five champion. 

For context, Virginia—ranked No. 14 overall with an 8-1 record—would sneak in as the ACC's representative, assuming they hold or improve their standing, even though they are behind both Oklahoma and Texas in the poll.

On the Group of Six side, Memphis (also 8-1) was not in the top 25, but they are the highest ranked team outside of the Power 4, and would secure the coveted auto-bid as the highest-rated non-Power conference champ, from the American Athletic Conference.

Among two-loss teams, the Sooners rank third in the CFP pecking order. Texas (No. 11) and Notre Dame (No. 10, independent with a strong non-conference slate) sit ahead, underscoring how resume nuances like quality wins and losses factor into the committee's deliberations. 

Oklahoma's two defeats—a blowout to Texas and a narrow road loss to a ranked SEC foe earlier in the year—haven't sunk them entirely, but they amplify the importance of upcoming opportunities.

The Sooners enjoy a much-needed bye this week, allowing time for minor injuries to heal and coaches to scheme ahead of a brutal closing stretch. Their path resumes with a daunting road trip to No. 4 Alabama, where Bryant-Denny Stadium's hostile environment could make or break their season. Home finales against No. 21 Missouri and LSU follow, offering prime chances to rack up marquee wins against teams with playoff aspirations of their own.

In a best-case scenario, Oklahoma controls its destiny. Winning out would yield a 10-2 record, bolstered by one of the nation's toughest schedules—featuring multiple top-25 opponents and cross-conference tests. ESPN's Playoff Predictor currently gives the Sooners a 36% chance of crashing the field, the 11th-highest probability among FBS programs. 

A three-game win streak could propel them past idle two-loss peers, potentially into the 5-8 seed range for a home playoff game in Norman. Slots 9-12, however, would mean hitting the road for the first round.

The CFP committee evaluates teams holistically, weighing strength of schedule, direct head-to-head outcomes, results against shared opponents (without rewarding blowouts), and extenuating circumstances like key player absences due to injury or suspension. These criteria will evolve weekly as results pour in.

Looking ahead, the next rankings release is slated for Tuesday, November 11, with weekly updates thereafter. The definitive 12-team field locks in on Selection Sunday, December 7—marking the culmination of a season where every snap counts.