Even the most bullish fans had tempered expectations for the Chicago Bears in 2025 — largely because of the schedule.

On paper, it was a nightmare.

Six division games against the NFC North — a division that sent all three of its other teams to the playoffs last year — was daunting enough. But outside of those matchups, the Bears’ schedule looked even worse.

They had road games against both the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles — the two teams that met in the NFC Championship Game a season ago.

Their “last-place matchup” from the NFC West? The San Francisco 49ers. The only reason San Francisco finished 6–11 last season was a slew of injuries. A healthy 49ers team is still a Super Bowl contender.

Chicago also drew matchups against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens — both perennial AFC juggernauts — and a revamped Las Vegas Raiders roster that many picked to be a sneaky playoff team.

It wasn’t supposed to be easy. That’s why Vegas set the Bears’ preseason win total at 8.5.

But now, six weeks into the 2025 season, with Chicago sitting at 3–2, fans are starting to wonder — is a playoff push actually in play?

What we thought we knew about the schedule has changed.

The Raiders — who Chicago already beat in Vegas — are struggling to find their footing under new head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith. The Bears already beat Washington, as well. And while it took a last second field goal from Jake Moody, Chicago regularly looked like the better team on Monday Night Football.`

The Ravens went from perennial contender to 1–5. Lamar Jackson is expected back when the Bears face them on October 26, but even without a messy offense led by Cooper Rush, Baltimore is vulnerable. That defense hasn’t been able to bail them out. It's a shell of what it was in past years. That game no longer feels like an automatic loss.

The same goes for Cincinnati. Without Joe Burrow, the Bengals have looked dreadful. Chicago should be favored in that matchup over a Joe Flacco-led roster.

Even the Eagles, once viewed as a juggernaut, have shown cracks — dropping two straight and looking beatable for the first time in a while.

The division games, though? Those still carry the most weight. How Chicago handles Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit will likely determine everything. If they can’t steal a couple of those wins, there’s almost no margin for error the rest of the way.

As things stand today, I’d still be surprised if the Bears secure a playoff spot. The NFC doesn’t have many pushover teams, and the Bears don’t have many layups on the schedule. They’ll need to take care of business this week against the Saints and later against a team like Cleveland in December.

But it’s undeniably more possible now than it was in September — and that’s worth acknowledging.

The Bears are better than most expected. And the schedule? It’s softer than advertised. That might just be the perfect combination for Chicago to surprise people and cruise past that preseason win total.