
The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely need to beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12 to keep their playoff chances alive.
A loss puts the Chiefs at 5-6, and while they could still make it to the playoffs, they would likely need to win out to do so. Kansas City sits as the ninth seed in the American Football Conference, chasing the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for the final spot.
After suffering a walk-off 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11, the Chiefs’ chances to win the AFC West crown are slim. It looks like the Chiefs will have to sneak in as a wild card team.
A win drastically alters their odds to make it into the postseason, so the Chiefs need to play with their heads on fire and find a way to stop Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor and the dynamic Colts offense.
Indianapolis runs a lot of play-action, their biggest strength as an offense and coincidentally, the Chiefs’ biggest weakness as a defense.
“Play-action is at the core of the Colts' offense; they use it on 33% of dropbacks, second most in the NFL,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote Saturday. “And it might be a particularly potent lever in Week 12, because the Chiefs -- while generally a solid defense that ranks 13th in EPA allowed per dropback -- have struggled mightily against play-action. They rank dead last in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and have allowed a 62% success rate against play-action, second worst among all defenses.”
With how the season has gone for the Chiefs, this matchup comes at an inopportune time. The Colts stack up well against Kansas City and their brand of football, creating a difficult situation for head coach Andy Reid.
“Indy is built to stress every one of the Chiefs' weaknesses,” ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado wrote Saturday. “The Colts love to run the ball, hit explosive plays through play-action and dictate early-down efficiency in a way that should keep this inside a field goal. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still makes the Chiefs a tough beat, but this version of the team hasn't created wide margins.”
Kansas City needs more from the run game, but it will be tough to create much offense on the ground against the fifth-best run defense in the National Football League (92.3 rushing yards allowed per game). Quarterback/superhero Patrick Mahomes might have to put his cape on to steal a win from a hard-nosed opponent.