This week’s Sunday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions is close to being a pick ‘em game, with the Chiefs favored by 2.5 points going in. Both Mike Florio and Chris Simms have the Lions winning, with Simms going with the Lions by a 30-21 score, while Florio as the Lions taking a one-score game at 30-24.
They also added a quick comment raising the question of why the Chiefs are favored, and it’s a fair point. The Chiefs have been the ultimate boom-or-bust team when it comes to media coverage this year—if they lose a game or two their championship run is basically over, while a win puts them back in the good graces of the media.
Two things can be true at once here: (1) no one has come close to stopping the Lions offense since their surprising opening game loss to the Green Bay Packers, and (2) the Chiefs are starting to get their offensive mojo back.
That spells a possible track meet, game, and if the score does end up with both teams in the 30s, that plays in the Lions favor. They’ve certainly handled the pressure of playing at Arrowhead before, so that won’t be an issue.
The big question for Kansas City is which version of their defense will show up. Will it be the nails version that throttled the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago and keep the New York Giants from scoring a touchdown, or will it be the sloppy unit that constantly kept the Jacksonville Jaguars in the game with bad penalties and inconsistent play?
If you’re looking for dramatic contrast, consider the way these two teams score. The Lions use an explosive run game that features backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, while the Chiefs don’t run the ball much at all, to the point where quarterback Patrick Mahomes still leads Kansas City in rushing yards after five games.
If you’re going with the tried-and-true “who needs this game more?” formula to try and figure this one out, that would be the Chiefs. They’re a game out of first place in the suddenly-competitive AFC West, while the Lions are sitting atop the NFC North at 4-1 ahead of the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.
One thing that seems certain is that this one will be one of the more entertaining games of the young season. Both offenses have a lot of star power that will be tough to stop, and here’s hoping that we get the one-score margin that Florio predicted.