Now that the trade deadline has come and gone without a running back being added, Kansas City Chiefs fans have hopefully had a chance to take a few deep breaths and recover. They’re not used to being 5-4 and out of the playoff picture if the postseason were to start today, but the overall outlook is still positive given their offensive resurgence and ability to recover from a tough 0-2 start.
Beat writer Jesse Newell of The Athletic offered three predictions for the second half of the Chiefs season, and they’re definitely worth a closer look given that they go very much against the grain.
The Chiefs final record. Newell had the Chiefs at 11-6 before the season, and he still thinks Kansas City will get there, despite the “sky is falling” commentary that’s been a running hot take on the team’s first half.
The offensive numbers have been excellent overall, and the fantasy folks would tell you the Chiefs should have 6.5 wins right now. The problem as been those one-score games, but the Chiefs’ touchdown rate as a percentage of their overall drives is still at 33.3 percent, according to Newell, which is more than on-par with the club’s championship seasons.
Chiefs run game won’t be a story again very soon. Newell makes a great point about the furor surrounding the Chiefs’ running game, which is that it wouldn’t be up for discussion if that one-score loss problem hadn’t reared its ugly head again against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Newell has an adage about this that he actually uses on his weekly Kansas City sports radio appearances: When the Chiefs win, no one talks about the running game. When they lose, everyone does.
The beat writer remains somewhat mystified by this given the other excellent offensive numbers, but he does point to one running game stat that helps support the overall offensive performance. The Chiefs are among the best in the league when it comes to avoiding running plays for a loss, with running back Isiah Pacheco rated first and fellow back Kareem Hunt checking in at fourth.
That might seem like a backhanded compliment, but it’s essential when it comes to giving quarterback Patrick Mahomes room to operate and take big shots downfield.
One defensive player is about to take off. That would be defensive lineman George Karlaftis, who stands at the top of many advanced pass rushing metrics, even though his five sacks lag behind the rest of his stats, according to Newell. Many of his stats come from Pro Football Focus, which is considered the NFL bible for advanced analytics.
This may be why the Chiefs didn’t follow up on many of the rumors that had them adding a defensive lineman, with Karlaftis’s first half performance being an underrated first-half bright spot.