
By John Diggs & John Gugs
Washington Commanders (4-10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
When & Where: Saturday, Dec. 20 @ 5 PM, NorthWest Stadium
TV: FOX
Betting: Washington +7, O/U: 44.5 (DraftKings)
Looking to string together the first win streak of the season, the Washington Commanders are set to host the Philadelphia Eagles for the second of four divisional games to end the 2025 regular season:
Limit the Big Plays
The Eagles’ offense has lived off the big play with wide receivers Devonte Smith and AJ Brown. The two receivers have a combined 25 of the team’s 38 catches of over 20 yards. Limiting the damage these two can do will be important.
After missing last week’s game with a rib injury, cornerback Jonathan Jones returned to practice and is on track to play. Mike Sainristil leads the team in interceptions and will more than likely match up with Brown, leaving Jones and rookie Antonio Hamilton with Smith. Slot man Noah Igbinoghene will be responsible for anything over the middle, which will include tight end Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles haven’t gotten many big plays in the running game, with only seven runs of over 20 yards on the year. Saquon Barkley’s production has taken a hit in 2025, rushing for almost two yards fewer per carry and only three such rushes. However, you can’t keep a good player down forever, and Washington needs to not allow Barkley and the team from getting things going on the ground.
To limit big play opportunities for the Eagles, Washington needs to make every tackle, avoid lapses in coverage, and remain aware of the ball’s location at all times.
Commanders O-Line vs Eagles Front Seven
Perhaps the biggest question for both teams heading into the game is the health of Jalen Carter and Laremy Tunsil. Carter has missed the Eagles’ last two games and wasn’t at practice on Tuesday. His status is up in the air. Lunsil only played 29 snaps against the Giants due to shoulder and oblique injuries. He returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday but is not expected to play, according to head coach Dan Quinn.
With Carter out for a third straight game, look for Brandon Graham to shift inside to partner with Jordan Davis. Brandon Coleman will get the start at left tackle if Tunsil is out. While those are the main concerns heading into Saturday, the matchups between Washington’s offensive line and Philadelphia’s front seven will be important.
Philadelphia has depth all over the place on defense, with anyone able to make a game-changing play. Davis has been one of the best defensive tackles in the league this year, while Moro Ojomo leads the team in sacks. Outside linebacker has a four-headed monster in Jaelan Phillips, Nolan Smith, Jalyx Hunt, and Josh Uche. Inside teams have to deal with Zack Baun, Nakobe Dean, and Jihaad Campbell.
Washington has given up 33 sacks on the season, tied with Buffalo for the 13th-most in the league. Going up against a front seven like Philadelphia, it’s critical that Marcus Mariota stays upright and has space to move around. Good protection on Saturday could lead to big plays at the right time.
Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The only reason the Giants were in it at the end was because of two Washington turnovers during the fourth quarter. New York pulled within eight following the first one, but wasn’t so lucky on the following one, with the Commander forcing a turnover on downs. If Washington wants to upset Philadelphia and prevent them from claiming the division, they have to protect the ball.
The Eagles’ +4 turnover ratio on the year has them ranked number eight in the league. This is mainly because they have done a good job of not turning it over themselves, as they are tied for the seventh-fewest giveaways on the year with 13. Doesn’t mean they can’t take it away, though, as their 17 takeaways put them in a seven-way tie for 11th-best.
The Commanders are third worst in the league in turnover differential with a -12 turnover differential. The Eagles however are +4 in turnover differential which is eighth in the league. The Eagles in their losses have turned the ball over in all but one of their losses averaging 2.6 turnovers in their losses. The best way to keep the Eagles offense off the field will be to make them turn the ball over and give the Commanders offense extra possessions. If the Commanders defense is able to make the Eagles offense force things, that will be when they will have their best shot at creating havoc and getting the Eagles to turn the ball over.
One of the keys for the Commanders not to turn it over will come to Marcus Mariota, replacing Jayden Daniels after being shut down for the season, playing a clean game. It was off his fumble that the Giants scored to get back in the game. He has to play a clean game, or it will be an uphill battle for Washington. Keep an eye on Reed Blankenship and Cooper DeJean in the Philadelphia secondary.
Win the time of possession battle
The Eagles are a team that have the most success when they can get the run game going and can control the time of possession. In four of their five losses this season, the Eagles have lost the time of possession battle with the one game they won the possession battle being against the Cowboys when they had 30:58 of possession. The best way to win the possession battle is to control the trenches and the running game on both sides of the ball. The Eagles average just 80.4 rushing yards in their losses this season, and average just 67 rushing yards per game if you do not include the loss to the Chargers where they had 134 rushing yards. In the Commanders’ four wins this season, they have rushed for an average of 182.3 rushing yards. If the Commanders are able to stop the Eagles’ running game and be able to get their own running game going, the Commanders will increase their odds at pulling off the upset drastically.
Get third down stops
As a whole this season, the Eagles have struggled on third downs, converting just 37.4% of the time which is tenth worst in the NFL. However, in the Eagles losses, they are converting on just 28% of their third down attempts this season. If the Commanders are able to stop the Eagles run game, they will be able to get the Eagles in lots of third and long opportunities which is why the Eagles have struggled converting on third down so much. The Eagles have passed for the ninth fewest first downs (136) and have run for 13th fewest first downs (93) in the league this season. If the Commanders are able to limit the Eagles’ big plays, especially on third down, it will keep that offense off the field and help the Commanders pull off the divisional upset.