Most Valuable Players Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson sidelined for the postseason? Surging underdogs and shocking losses by the legends have scrambled the AFC playoff picture. Who's in, who's out? Can we have a playoff picture with Mahomes and Jackson not in it?
The calendar rolls into December in a few days and the NFL season is about three quarters over. We've seen a lot of surprises so far, and Thursday was no different. It was one hell of a great Thanksgiving Day of football.
It was great because the favorites — the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens — all lost. And as we wake up on Friday morning, none of them would be in the playoffs in they started today.
I know they don't, but for the Chiefs and Ravens, these losses on Thursday were devastating. Both had been playing well, and both expected to win. Neither did, and now they are on the outside looking in — with zero margin for error. Both are 6-6 right now, and it just might take winning out to make the postseason. Getting to 11-6 is a must, because 10-7 might not be enough.
If the AFC playoffs started today, this is how they'd look:
No. 1 seed New England Patriots (10-2, AFC East champions) — first-round bye.
No. 2 seed Denver Broncos (9-2, AFC West champions) vs. No. 7 seed Buffalo Bills (7-4, third wild-card team).
No. 3 seed Indianapolis Colts (8-3, AFC South champions) vs. No. 6 seed Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4, second wild-card team).
No. 4 seed Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5, AFC north champions) vs. No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, first wild-card team based on tiebreakers).
So there you go, seven teams. No Chiefs, no Ravens. No MVPS, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson watching from home. And Travis Kelce left with nothing to do but a few podcasts and planning a little wedding.
The Chiefs lost 31-28 to the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in the late afternoon game. They had plenty of chances to win late, but dropped passes once again did them in. They are now 1-6 in one-score games this year – after going 12-0 in one-score games last year, including the playoffs. They are a .500 team — with a plus-73 point differential.
Crazy. This is a franchise with three Super Bowl titles led by Mahomes. And now they are in serious trouble.
“Just more missed opportunities, just like all the losses we’ve had this year,” Mahomes told reporters after the game. “We can beat everybody, but we’ve shown that we can lose to anybody. We’ve got to be more consistent.”
Everyone was to blame. There were too many dropped passes, the defense couldn't get off the field, allowing nine third-down conversations and there were way too many penalties. The Chiefs were flagged 10 times for 119 yards, their biggest total in five years.
“That’s the kind of stuff we’ve done all year long,” Mahomes said. “You’ve got to win every game now,” Mahomes said, “and hope that’s enough.”
Winning out would almost certainly be enough. You would think games at 1-10 Tennessee and home against the Las Vegas Raiders would be locks, but the other three are not easy. They have the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers at home the next two weeks, plus a home game with division leader Denver on Christmas.
This will not be easy, especially since the Chiefs keep shooting themselves in the foot. They've got a difficult journey to the playoffs.
It's a little easier for the Ravens, but losing 32-14 at home to the 4-8 Bengals was totally unacceptable. Baltimore had won five straight games to dig themselves out of their early hole, only to stumble and fall on Thursday night during the dessert portion of our football watching.
All their wounds were self-inflicted too. They had five turnovers — their most in a game since 2013 — and lost to Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who was playing his first game in more than two months. The Ravens wasted a good opportunity.
Lamar Jackson was responsible for three turnovers, two fumbles and an interception. He also missed several open receivers and led only two scoring drives against the Bengals defense, which is far and away the worst in the NFL, averaging 32.7 points per game coming into the nothing.
“I’m ticked off,” Jackson told reporters after the game. “It’s not even frustrating. I’m just mad because — like I said, we can’t have that. The turnovers are a big part of winning and losing games. Turning the ball over, giving them an extra possession, this is the outcome.
“I just have to play consistently. I can’t have turnovers … not just this game, but in any game. We’re putting our defense on the field too much. I can’t have that.”
The Ravens have five games left, and their path to the postseason is much easier if they can get Jackson to start playing better. The AFC North is a very winnable position. The Pittsburgh Steelers led it at 6-5 after the Ravens' loss on Thursday night – and they still play each other twice.
They play in Pittsburgh next Sunday, and then finish the season against each other in Baltimore in Week 18, the final week of the regular season. In between, Baltimore is at Cincinnati, home against league-leading New England and at Green Bay.
That's a tall ask to win out. Their margin for error is much better because they have those two games with the Steelers. Win them both, and then 10-7 probably still wins the division. Heck, maybe 9-8 might even do it.
But that's leaving too much to chance. And the eye test tells you something too. Jackson just isn;t playing well, and needs to turn it around quicky.
A postseason with Mahomes and Jackson? Well, I never saw that coming.