Is Kyle Tucker a trap for the New York Yankees?
The New York Yankees are expected to pursue Kyle Tucker in free agency, which should not come as a surprise considering he is the top position player on the market.
But are the Yankees actually being deceived here?
Allow me to explain.
The general consensus is that Tucker will land a contract worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 million. Not quite Juan Soto territory, but still pretty expensive. Meanwhile, Cody Bellinger, who is coming off of a terrific season in New York, is being projected to land anywhere from $140 to $180 million. So less than half of Tucker's projection.
But is Tucker really that much better than Bellinger?
Tucker could potentially bag a 10-year contract, while the expectation is that Bellinger will probably be between five and seven years. So really, Tucker would be making around twice as much as Bellinger in that scenario.
Look: Tucker is an outstanding player. He is a four-time All-Star and a true five-tool talent, and while his .266/.377/.464 slash line with 22 home runs and 73 RBI in 2025 wasn't extraordinary, it's important to keep in mind that he missed extensive time with injuries and was also playing hurt for a while.
The real Tucker is probably more like the one we saw during his final four years with the Houston Astros. Heck, had it not been for injuries in 2024, he may have challenged Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award, as he managed a .993 OPS in 78 games.
But in three of the last four seasons, Tucker has posted an OPS below .900. He finished at .808 in 2022, .886 in 2023 and .841 this past year. Meanwhile, Bellinger posted an .813 OPS in 2025 while still playing stellar outfield defense.
I've said numerous times that I want the Yankees to sign both Tucker and Bellinger this winter, but it just doesn't seem very realistic. At least not right now. They'll have to pick one or the other, and if that ends up being the case, Bellinger may end up being the more sensible choice.
Why? Well, it's just like the Soto situation last year. The Yankees offered him $760 million. He ultimately chose a bit more to sign with the New York Mets, but it may have actually worked out in the Yanks' favor.
Had Soto inked that contract to remain in pinstripes, the Yankees probably would not have been able to do anything else thanks to Hal Steinbrenner's budget. The same probably applies with Tucker this offseason, especially considering the rumors that Steinbrenner wants to lower payroll.
New York could just retain Bellinger at a fraction of Tucker's price (assuming Bellinger's market doesn't suddenly inflate) and then use the leftover money to add another starting pitcher, address the bullpen and potentially bring in another outfielder if Trent Grisham departs.
Don't get me wrong: Tucker is really good. But he also turns 29 years old in January, and I don't believe he is twice the player that Bellinger is. I don't think replacing Bellinger with Tucker and doing nothing else of consequence makes the Yankees much better in 2026.
If Tucker were 26, this would be a different argument. But he is only a year younger than Bellinger, and given the fact that the duration of his contract may be twice as long, it's also riskier in the long run. Not that there isn't risk associated with Bellinger, but no one is giving Bellinger a 10-year pact.
Again, unless the Yankees plan on signing both players (which they probably don't), they need to be very careful with Tucker.