Win out and the Niners claim the No. 1 seed. Even a single loss complicates their path, pushing them towards wild card territory.
The San Francisco 49ers' (10-4) playoff path is cut and dry. It is all but certain the Niners will be a wild card or the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The New York Times' Ryan Best and Austin Mack shared percentage odds for where each team would land based on each win-loss result combination, and the results are interesting. The first takeaway jumps of the page.
Best and Mack posted a graphic that displayed the results of the various scenarios. The first result, in which the Niners win all three of their remaining games against the Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Chicago Bears (10-4) and Seattle Seahawks (11-3), gives San Francisco a 100% chance of the No. 1 seed.
It does not get less complicated than that. Win out, and the Niners are the No. 1 seed. It gets more complicated with any loss.
If San Francisco loses to the Colts, but defeats the Bears and Seahawks, both NFC foes, the 49ers are given a 7% chance of the No. 1 seed and 1% chance of the No. 2 seed, with a combined 92% chance of getting either the No. 5 or 6 seed.
If the Niners beat the Colts and Seahawks but lose to the Bears, there is a combined 8% chance they win the division and get a seed between No. 1 and No. 3.
The most likely scenarios in order appear to be that the 49ers receive the No. 6, No. 7 or No. 5 seed. Even if they lose out, San Francisco is only given a 14% chance of missing the postseason with a 78% chance of the No. 7 seed and an 8% chance at the No. 6 seed.
Here's how Mack and Best summarized their findings.
"If the 49ers win any of their remaining three games, they will clinch a playoff berth.
A division title is unlikely but still a possibility. Three straight wins to end the season would do it — and deliver the No. 1 seed, too.
Even if they lose all their remaining games, the 49ers would still probably sneak into the playoffs with the No. 7 seed."
The path to the playoffs in general is simple for the Niners: win and you're in. And while none of the remaining games are easy with each team at least two wins above .500 or better, the likelihood is there will be another year of postseason football in San Francisco this winter.