A nightmare scenario where the Chicago Bears miss the playoffs with 11 wins is becoming more likely by the day — and the season could come down to the final week.
Even a few weeks ago, when the Chicago Bears were sitting atop the NFC North and flirting with the No. 1 seed in the conference, I could already see how the rest of the regular season was going to unfold.
Because of course — in this season of all seasons — the NFC is an absolute gauntlet. And of course it lines up with the Bears’ best year since 2018. Meanwhile, one of seven legitimately playoff-caliber NFC teams is going to be stuck on the outside looking in thanks to the NFC South automatically stealing a bid for its division winner.
I warned everyone weeks ago about a world where the Bears could win 11 games and still miss the playoffs — something we haven’t seen since the 2008 Patriots, before the league expanded the postseason to seven teams per conference. Since that rule change, missing the postseason with 11 wins is impossible.
But it could very well happen to the Bears this season.
After dropping last Sunday’s game at Lambeau, Bears fans immediately circled the next two matchups as “must-wins” for their playoff hopes.
Beat the 3–10 Browns? You have to. Split with the Packers? Feels necessary.
But those games mean far less than most fans think. Even going 2–0 in those games doesn’t guarantee anything.
Let’s walk through it.
If the Bears Win Their Next Two Games…
If Chicago beats Cleveland and Green Bay at Soldier Field, they sit at 11–4. On paper, that looks safe.
It’s not.
Say the Packers split their games with the Broncos and Ravens and lose to the Bears. They’ll likely beat Minnesota in Week 18. That puts them at 11–5–1 to finish the season — ahead of an 11-6 Bears.
Assume the Lions go 2–1 in their next three — a tough one vs. the Rams and two winnable games against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. That leaves Detroit at 10–6 heading into Week 18…when they play the Bears.
The 49ers are 9–4 and have Tennessee and Indianapolis next — two likely wins. That gets them to 11 wins before they even see the Bears and Seahawks.
Suddenly, 11 wins doesn't punch your ticket. Even if the Bears beat the Browns and Packers, they’ll still need to beat either the 49ers or Lions to lock in a playoff spot.
Lose both? Then you’re looking at an 11–6 Bears team missing the playoffs.
The Most Likely Scenario
The most realistic scenario is that the Bears and Lions will end up playing for a playoff spot in the season's final week.
As long as Chicago wins one of their next three — vs. Browns, vs. Packers, @ 49ers — and the Lions don’t win out, the Bears are guaranteed to play for a playoff spot in Week 18 against Detroit.
1-2 in the next three puts the Bears entering Week 18 at 10–6.
If Detroit loses to the Rams but beats the Steelers and Vikings (2-1), they’ll also be 10–6.
That sets up a win-or-go-home Bears–Lions rematch between Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson.
And yes — that scenario is extremely plausible. That would still be the case if the Bears goes 2-1 in their next three and are sitting at 11-5. A loss to Lions evens up the records and swings the tiebreaker in Detroit's favor.
Why the Green Bay Game Matters…But Probably Not for the Playoffs
A win over Green Bay is obviously huge for division purposes. The Bears are only 0.5 games back, so the NFC North is very much still in play.
But strangely enough, that Packers game will likely have very little impact on whether the Bears clinch a wild card.
Their playoff fate is almost certainly going to come down to:
- Week 17 @ San Francisco
- Week 18 vs. Detroit
The Bears’ entire season may come down to those final two weeks — with a likely Week 18 showdown for everything.