With a brutal remaining schedule and an unprecedented NFC logjam, even an 11-win season might not guarantee the Chicago Bears a playoff spot.
Even the most optimistic Chicago Bears fan couldn’t have predicted this team to be 8–3 after Week 12 and sitting atop the NFC North.
No matter how you slice it, this season has been a massive win for Chicago. Second-year quarterback Caleb Williams is proving on a weekly basis that he’s one of the best young quarterbacks in football. The Bears can finally say they have their franchise guy — and helping him every step of the way is head coach Ben Johnson.
Johnson hasn’t just been an excellent play-caller; he’s been a steady, respected leader in the locker room. The culture shift is palpable.
And look — it doesn’t matter who Chicago has beaten or how they’ve gotten there. Most fans would’ve called eight wins a successful season back in September. The Bears hit that mark before Thanksgiving. With a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday, they could jump to the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
But we all know about the gauntlet that's coming.
The Bears close the season with Philadelphia, two games against Green Bay, and matchups with San Francisco and Detroit. All playoff-caliber teams.
The only game where Chicago will be a clear favorite is against Cleveland — and even the Browns, despite being one of the worst teams in the league, have an intimidating defense. They already beat Green Bay earlier this season and they're second in the NFL with 42 sacks as a team. There are no freebies here.
The schedule isn’t impossible. The Bears have earned the benefit of the doubt by finding ways to win week after week. But even if Chicago goes 3–3 down the stretch and finishes 11–6 — which would’ve sounded like a dream scenario in August — that might still not be enough to make the postseason.
Absurd? Absolutely. But it’s also the reality of the NFC in 2025.
10 Wins Usually Gets You In — But This Year Is Different
Since the NFL expanded to a 14-team playoff format in 2020, only two teams have won 10+ games and missed the playoffs.
The 2020 Miami Dolphins (10–6) and the 2024 Seattle Seahawks (10–7).
Otherwise, 10 wins has essentially been a punched ticket to the dance.
To find the last team that won 11 games and missed the postseason, you have to rewind all the way to the 2008 New England Patriots, who finished 11–5 and lost tiebreakers to Miami (division) and Baltimore (wild card). Meanwhile, an 8–8 Chargers team won the AFC West.
Sometimes life just isn’t fair.
Maybe it’s decades of Bears trauma talking, but I find it hard not to prepare for the worst-case scenario — an 11–6 season somehow becoming heartbreaking.
The Competition Isn’t Slowing Down
If the Bears do get 11 wins, it will all depend on which of the remaining matchups Chicago wins. But here’s how the biggest threats stack up:
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
Remaining opponents - Lions, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bears (twice).
They’ve already beaten Detroit and Minnesota. If they win four more, 11-5-1 puts them ahead of the Bears. It's a tough slate — but that's a reasonable finish for Green Bay.
Detroit Lions (7-4)
Remaining opponents - Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings, Bears.
Detroit will likely be favored in at least three of those games. If they get to 11 wins, they own the division tiebreaker even if Chicago beats them in Week 18 — because of a stronger division record. The Lions haven’t lost an NFC North game yet.
San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Remaining opponents - Browns, Titans, Colts, Bears, Seahawks
Cleveland and Tennessee could push them to 10 wins quickly. If they beat the Bears in Week 17, that’s 11 wins and the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Nightmare Scenario
Imagine the Bears split with the Packers, beat Cleveland, and cap the year with a win over Detroit.
Chicago finishes 11–6… and still misses the playoffs because:
- Green Bay goes 11-5-1 and wins the division
- Detroit finishes 11-6 with the tiebreaker
- San Francisco finishes 11-6 with the tiebreaker
An 11-win team — sitting at home in January.
I don't mean to rain on the parade. This season has been fun — legitimately fun — and Bears fans deserve every second of it. I'm enjoying the ride every day.
But the conversation has shifted since the win over Pittsburgh. Suddenly, the assumption is that Chicago should make the playoffs. The bar is rising. And yes, missing out after an 8-3 start would sting.
But wouldn't make the Bears "frauds" or the season a failure. It doesn’t change the fact that Chicago made the playoffs at 8–8 in 2020 — and could somehow miss with 11 wins in 2025.
I only put forward this reality as a way to caution everybody. The best approach is to keep doing what we’ve all done all year. Take it week by week. By Christmas, we’ll know exactly what the Bears need to do to clinch.
Until then, buckle up — because in this NFC, nothing is guaranteed.