Looking at how high the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can land in the first round of the draft if they fail to win the NFC South.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in play for their fifth straight NFC South championship. A win over the Carolina Panthers on Saturday plus a loss by the Atlanta Falcons against the New Orleans Saints would send the Buccaneers to the playoffs, even with an 8-9 record.
The fact they're even still in this position is a testament to the state of the division itself. The Panthers could also win the division at 8-9, by virtue of winning a three-way tie involving the Falcons.
If the Buccaneers do not win the division, their consolation prize would be a first-round pick that could land just outside the top ten. Entering Week 18, the Buccaneers (7-9) hold the 13th overall pick, according the Tankathon.
If the Buccaneers win the NFC South and make the playoffs, they would pick as high as No. 19. Their pick would be based on how far they advance in the playoffs.
If they lose on Saturday and finish 7-10, they could pick as high as No. 11 if they also get wins by the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons (who are sending their pick to the Los Angeles Rams). They cannot get into the top 10 as they cannot win the strength of schedule tiebreaker over any of the 6-10 teams (Saints, Chiefs, Bengals).
If they win and finish at 8-9, the aforementioned playoff scenarios come into play if the Falcons lose. If the Falcons win in this case, and the Buccaneers do not make the playoffs, they could potentially fall to No. 18.
They could drop one spot further down for each loss by the Cowboys, Lions, Ravens, Vikings and Colts -- other results affecting strength of schedule would also come into play, but this is the easiest scenario, all things being equal.
Theoretically, the Buccaneers' range for their first-round pick could be anywhere from No. 11 to No. 32, since they can still make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Realistically, they're looking at No. 11 to No. 19 (assuming they make the playoffs and lose in the Wild Card round).
As for what the Buccaneers could be looking for in the draft, the argument for many is going to start with defensive end. The Buccaneers need and long-term stability at the position. They have some young pieces, but many of them, including Yaya Diaby and Anthony Nelson, are entering contract years in 2026. Haason Reddick is also set to be a free agent. 2025 fourth-round pick David Walker is a name to keep an eye on as he returns from an ACL injury.
Inside linebacker is also going to be another position to watch. Unfortunately, Lavonte David cannot play forever, no matter how hard he tries. SirVocea Dennis will likely be penciled in as one starter inside, but he is entering a contract year in 2026 and the Buccaneers do not have much behind him.