Some things aren’t exactly what they seem, and that’s definitely true when it comes to the odds of winning the tough and highly-competitive AFC West. At first glance it looks like the Denver Broncos are close to a lock, but the Kansas City Chiefs could author a complete change in the numbers with a victory tomorrow at Mile High. 

At the moment, the 8-2 Broncos are +120 to win the AFC West, according to Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. The Chiefs are at 5-4, but they’re just behind Denver at +165, which reflects the oddsmakers' lack of faith in the Broncos and Kansas City’s track record as perennial division winners. The Chargers land at 300+, which is a backhanded commentary on the state of LA’s battered offensive line as well as the potential for late-season “Chargering.” 

A road win for the Chief changes everything. They’d jump the Broncos in the odds standing, and they wouldn’t just gain a game in the real standings. They’d also get the tiebreaker edge, which could be huge given just how close these teams are right now. That Kansas City victory would also produce the instant expectation that the Chiefs will win their tenth AFC West title in a row. 

The fly in the ointment for the Chiefs has been close games. They’re 0-4 in one-score games so far, which feels unprecedented after last year, while Denver is 6-2 in these games. Part of the reason these games are so close is because the Broncos have had tight games against bad teams, which makes it feel like they’re living on borrowed time in this category. 

The point differential bears this out as well. Kansas City is at +76, while Denver is currently +62, and as Smith points out, point differential is considered a better indicator of a team’s overall quality than won-loss record. 

Finally, there’s that Andy Reid bye thing. He’s 22-4 in games after the bye, for an NFL record .846 win percentage, according to Ben Volin of the Boston Globe. Reid also finds a way to win when things aren’t going that well, which helps explain the odds numbers. 

So what if the outcome goes the other way? That’s a different story entirely. It would set off another wave of Chiefs skepticism, not to mention a wave of panic among the fan base. There’s a lot at stake tomorrow in Denver, and the odds numbers reflect how close this game really should be.