At first glance, it’s tough to understand why the Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites going into today’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 6-7, while the Chargers are sitting at 9-4, so it looks like this line should be a lot different.
To help explain this, Jesse Newell of The Athletic enlisted the help of Johnny Avello, who is the director of sports operations for DraftKings. Avello provided some insights, which were based on considering the Chiefs from a sportsbook perspective, according to Newell.
Start with the fact that Kansas City is still playing hard. A lot of teams in this situation start mailing games in, and that’s clearly not happening with the Chiefs. They have talent, along with a championship legacy that’s holding firm so far.
“The Chiefs,” he said this week, “are still a very good team.”
Avello said oddsmakers use power rating as team as starting point, and those rankings are solid as well.
“We still view them as a highly-ranked team,” Avello said. “There’s only a couple of teams that would be favored over them on a neutral field.”
The evaluation of the league as a whole is a factor as well.
“When you look at the NFL this year, can you really say that there are any teams out there that are great teams, both sides of the ball?” Avello said. “No.”
John Ewing, head of PR for BetMGM, said Kansas City’s record doesn’t provide the full context of their situation, either.
“They are better than their record indicates,” Ewing said. “As long as K.C. is in the hunt for a playoff spot, we expect them to be favored in each of the four remaining games.”
The action on that forecast bears Ewing out. According to Avello, 90 percent of the spread bits have gone in favor of the Chiefs, along with 80 percent of the money-line wagers. That's still a heavy majority, and ultimately it's the betting public that swings the line as the game approaches.
“So this game may end up moving to six (points),” Avello said. “I think we had the right number initially.”
These are interesting factors to keep in mind during the game, especially if it’s as close as expected. It’s likely going to come down to a couple of plays at the end, and while it’s easy to bet against Kansas City given their struggles in one-score games, it’s tough to go all-in on doing that.