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ces921
Aug 24, 2024

Powell cutting rates within a whisker of the all time spx high, with credit spreads basically record tight, with inflation running above 2.5% while employment is at a level that would be considered at maximum for most of the last 50 years of data is a massive capitulation that will usher in a tremendous hard asset boom as he is sacrificing the long time stability and hegemony of the US$ to help save US govt finances. It's hard to find an alternative explanation for the speed of pivot and throwing out most Fed reaction function orthodoxy. It is what it is. We knew this was coming eventually. I thought it would happen after more pain was seen in the economy and financial markets first to give more time before inflation returned but Powell is trying to pre-empt the pain in an election year and help his "legacy" of nailing the soft landing without any issues. I doubt history will wind up being so kind to that legacy. I predict a return to inflation before lower rates are able to save the deterioration in the labor market. Get your currency debasement trades on. And this time, with a real alternative financial system away from US$ and UST being created at an increasing pace in BRICS, things are likely going to be different this time. Got Gold! Got Bitcoin!

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