

It’s recently been discovered that the price of bitcoin conforms to a power law in time. This has remained true so far for over a decade and across nine different orders of magnitude, making it “scale invariant”. And because power law growth phenomena usually don’t just stop of their own accord, It appears reasonably likely to remain true going forward for additional orders of magnitude. Power laws are well understood and well described relationships where the quantity or amount of something varies as a power of another thing. In this case, bitcoin’s price varies primarily as a power of the amount of time that has lapsed since its discovery (though there are other power law phenomena that account for its periodic, cyclic bubbles). Power laws in time are one of nature’s favored approaches to growing/building something in a sustainable way. Unlike exponential growth which tends to eventually collapse under its own weight, power law growth is generally sustainable across a great many orders of magnitude. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset that has so far conformed to power law growth over a meaningful period of time and multiple orders of magnitude. Because bitcoin is a power law in time, it’s future price should be be highly predictable. See the full model below for an illustration of its historical versus predicted price. The present price is only 2.5% off of the full model power law prediction (the yellow line in the chart below). If the below model is accurate (and so far it has been), then we can expect the price of each bitcoin to top for *this* halving cycle in the winter of 2025 at around $200,000. After that the model predicts that its price will drop for a few years before going on to set another new all time high after the next halving in 2028. The below chart and model were developed by @Giovann35084111 who deserves the credit for the discovery of bitcoin’s power law relationship.
