2 year inflation breakeven yields have broken out to 1 year highs, and are above levels seen last fall when "a substantial majority" of Fed members anticipated another rate hike in 2023. And before you tell me this is just oil, note that oil was steadily ranging between $85-95 back then vs between $85-87 over last couple weeks, so clearly it is more than just oil. And back then, the Fed was starting to say things like the long end is starting to do the work for us and yet yields in October were between 4.5-5% on 10 year vs just around 4.5% now. Mortgage rates back then were in the 7.8-8.1% camp vs 7.4% now. Conditions are much easier today. The bond market isn't doing the work for the Fed. So I remain confused as to why a majority of @federalreserve members were still looking for another hike back then, one which they failed to deliver, but now, given financial conditions are extremely loose as compared to back then, and on some metrics looser than they have been since the start of the tightening cycle in 2022, why is the Fed adamant that their next move is still going to be an interest rate cut? Why is Fed policy still asymmetric in this environment? Why is the bar to hike rates from here as the next move so much higher than the bar to cut rates? If the Fed actually wanted to bring inflation back down to 2% (I'm not really sure they do but that's a topic for another thread), why won't they allow the risks be two sided as to what their next move will be? If they are truly data dependent, we should be pricing in much higher odds that the next move is a hike, rather than the still near 0% chance right now. If they are just acknowledging the realities of a country that is in a fiscal dominance regime and needs lower rates to help finance the government's excessive deficits, at least stop gaslighting us that you are data dependent and just admit the truth. Inquiring minds would like to know.