Great article here by @izakaminska discussing some of the dynamics in Europe heading into the important French elections.

There is some increasing talk of the ECB standing down near term if an adverse French election results this weekend and allows French spreads to blow out a bit as a way to punish the fringe party efforts to run up massive fiscal deficits. The ECB allowing spreads to widen and allowing markets to enact discipline on newly elected French leaders could be very risk off for Europe in the near term (euro, sov spreads, equities) until we found the new level of the ECB "put."

This seems like a risk that is woefully underpriced in markets outside of Europe currently.