Are the election betting markets accurate? Will the election markets be bigger than the super bowl for the 2028 election?

Oct 24, 2024

Wanting to have a proper discussion on the current state of election odds, polymarket, election betting, and much more. This past week I have been doing a deep dive into the BetOnline.ag and BetMGM betting markets, which seem to be taking in hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets on both candidates, depending on where they list the lines, and what the payout is.

I think this is fascinating, considering that Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder of Kalshi, just predicted publically that the electoral betting markets will be a $1 trillion market in a few cycles.

This⬇️doesn't surprise me. I'm repeating this, but a few years ago, @SuperBookSports' @JayKornegay said of the prospect of betting on election odds:

"Presidential election handle would dwarf the Super Bowl. And when I say dwarf, I've heard 10 to 15 times the Super Bowl numbers."

x.comPatrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) on XThis⬇️doesn't surprise me. I'm repeating this, but a few years ago, @SuperBookSports' @JayKornegay said of the prospect of betting on election odds: "Presidential election handle would dwarf the Super Bowl. And when I say dwarf, I've heard 10 to 15 times the Super Bowl numbers."

He goes on to say that Presidential election handles would dwarf the Super Bowl, 10-15 times.

With this election being the first to give accessible avenues for the common American to place a bet on the Presidential election outcome, I am at the same time excited, and fearful, of what this turns into. What do you think about this?