My quick look ahead to the next few days of trading is as follows: There is likely to be volatility selling today as folks believe this geopolitical stage of fighting is over for now but we still don't really know if/how Israel is going to respond. We also don't really know how Iran is going to act in the Strait of Hormuz, which has clearly become a hot button issue as disrupting oil flows there would be very bullish for oil prices and hit global growth momentum in a way that makes it harder for central banks to ease policy. As a result, for the first time in quite a while, I would imagine that there is going to be a medium term bid for volatility, returning to the market as investors will need to price in potential escalation again in the future. This is likely going to help put a floor in VIX as medium term hedges are added rather than just the daily hedges we get into big macro events and weekends. This has the ability to dislodge some of the length that is sitting in vol control funds, CTAs and other systematic strategies. These funds are basically all in long. In the meantime, what we are still left with is an economy that is too hot for the Fed easing cycle to commence. Inflation is re-accerating and inflation is expectations are going to move higher with gasoline prices staying firm on remaining heightened geopolitical risk and seasonal demand strength. As a results, we should continue to see the environment of yields up, $ strength, term premiums rising and risk off behavior accelerating, especially if earnings don't come in as expected which is what last weeks bank earnings reporters delivered. With decent liquidity drain coming this week from tax payments, and the buyback window largely closed, I don't believe the setup for risk asssts is very good so I'd be looking to fade any vol selling that comes in the coming days to set up for stocks down, bonds down trading over the next few weeks in a run up to the May Fed meeting and important May 1st QRA announcement.