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ces921
Apr 3, 2024

The Fed continues to say monetary policy is restrictive and financial conditions remain tight, despite the fact that the economy grows about trend, the labor market is "very very strong" and inflation is running higher than target. Even though countless financial condition indexes that the Fed has told us they watch (their own FCI indicator, Chicago Fed National FCI Index, Goldman FCI Index) are showing conditions are looser now than they were before the tightening cycle in 2022, still the Fed says policy restrictive. They say these indices are too driven by Mag 7 stocks to be useful at this point. (another lie by them but whatever). Nevertheless, if the Fed were to look at one indicator to show that their policy isn't restrictive enough to bring inflation back down to 2%, they should be looking at the price of Gold, which continues to set record highs every day. Gold is calling bullshit on the Fed's idea that policy is restrictive. Gold is calling bullshit on the Fed's desire to bring inflation back to 2%. Gold is calling bullshit on the government's ability to reign in deficit spending any time soon. Gold is call option on government and monetary policy dysfunction. We are there.

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