Chicago needs a playoff ace. Can the Cubs outspend rivals and lure ace Framber Valdez, offering the biggest contract in franchise history?
Most analysts predict the Chicago Cubs to land a frontline starting pitcher this offseason.
Insiders believe the team will sign one of Tatsuya Imai or Zac Gallen in free agency. Those two pitchers are who the Cubs are currently linked to the most.
However, ESPN senior writer David Schoenfield predicts the Cubs to land a different star pitcher this winter. In a recent article at ESPN, he lists Chicago as the favorite to sign left-hander Framber Valdez.
“The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation starter, a guy they feel more confident handing the ball to in a playoff game than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga,” Schoenfield wrote. “They also have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million below last season's total.”
Both things that Schoenfield wrote are true. The Cubs desperately need a pitcher who can go out there and win a playoff game. The team simply didn’t have that game-changer on the mound in the playoffs last year, which ultimately led to an exit in the Division Series.
Valdez would immediately change that. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game in recent years and would be that No. 1 pitcher the Cubs are looking for. The southpaw has finished with a sub-3.50 ERA in four of the past five seasons.
The Cubs also have the money to potentially splurge on a top pitcher. They have yet to make a big move and are still roughly $44 million away from hitting the first luxury tax. That gives them the possibility to sign a pitcher of Valdez’s caliber.
Chicago has a current projected payroll of $199 million at this point in the offseason, according to Spotrac. That includes all of the new free-agent additions as well as the projected arbitration contracts.
Therefore, the Cubs have the money and need to add Valdez in free agency.
However, it would be quite surprising to see Chicago actually land him this winter. The front office would likely need to offer him the largest pitching contract in team history. Valdez’s market value currently sits at six years, $199 million on Spotrac.
Considering Dylan Cease received a $200 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays last month, Valdez will almost certainly be asking for a contract around that price range in free agency.
The Cubs just don’t appear to be the team that would spend all that money on the former Astros pitcher. Chicago is usually very hesitant to offer big contracts, and it’s highly unlikely this front office will outbid other teams for Valdez.
There’s no doubt that the two-time All-Star would be a massive boost to this Cubs’ rotation. But the front office’s lack of spending is a large reason why it’s hard to imagine Valdez signing with Chicago -- unless he agrees to a shorter-term contract.