FanGraphs ZiPS believes the Cleveland Guardians' starting rotation is in a good spot heading into the 2026 MLB season.
A year ago, the Cleveland Guardians were searching across the organization, the free-agent market, and the trade market to improve the starting rotation heading into the 2025 season.
Now, the tables have turned, and while an organization should never feel too comfortable with its pitching the staff, Cleveland’s is cautiously in a good spot, and one famous projection model agrees with that statement.
FanGraph’s ZiPS projections believe the Guardians’ pitching staff is in a strong spot, as Dan Szymborski recently detailed.
“ZiPS is much more confident about the state of the Guardians' pitching staff than the lineup,” wrote Szymborski.
The confidence starts with the one-two punch at the top of the rotation: Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. The analyst continued, “Even if neither pitcher really fits the mold of a typical ace, ZiPS expects both Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams to surpass 3 WAR based on our Depth Chart playing time.”
Even though the next grouping of pitchers may not be All-Star or get Cy Young votes, ZiPS is still confident in the depth of the position group.
Oct 2, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Slade Cecconi (44) throws in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers during game three of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images“There aren’t any big names in this rotation after Bibee and Williams, but ZiPS sees Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen, and Parker Messick as quietly competent starters," continued Szymborski.
"ZiPS has had a silicon-crush on Joey Cantillo for a while now, and led by Austin Peterson, the team has pretty good depth in the form of unexciting pitchers with generally decent command. These are the types that Cleveland has historically produced like clockwork.”
This core of pitchers was responsible for Cleveland’s unbelievable, dominant September from the staff that powered the Guardians into a playoff spot and to the top of the American League Central after being 15.5 games back. As a rotation, the Guardians finished the final month of the regular season with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Heading into the offseason, there were a lot of reasons to be encouraged about the state of Cleveland’s rotation, and ZiPS is backing that confidence up. Now, it’s time for the Guardians to address the lineup and add a bat to the position player group.