Statistically, the Lions and Steelers live in different worlds offensively, yet this matchup may come down to a familiar Detroit concern — whether a defense prone to big plays can hold up long enough for an elite offense to take control.
paper, the upcoming matchup between the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers presents a clear contrast in team identity. Detroit enters the game as one of the NFL’s most complete and explosive offenses, while Pittsburgh leans on defensive opportunism and situational football to offset an inconsistent attack. A deeper dive into the analytics reveals where this game could tilt, and where the Lions’ season-long strengths are being quietly tested.
Offensively, Detroit holds a decisive advantage. The Lions lead the NFL in scoring at 30.6 points per game and rank fourth in total offense with 379.9 yards per contest. Pittsburgh, by comparison, averages 24.0 points (13th) and just 288.1 total yards (27th). Detroit’s balance has been the separator. The Lions rank fifth in rushing offense at 131.1 yards per game and third in passing at 248.8, while the Steelers sit near the bottom in both categories, ranking 28th in rushing (92.5) and 23rd in passing (195.6).
Detroit’s efficiency also shows up in the details. The Lions convert 67.3 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, second-best in the league, and protect the football better than anyone, committing just eight giveaways all season. Pittsburgh’s red zone efficiency is comparable at 66.7 percent, but ball security is not. The Steelers have turned the ball over 14 times, tied for ninth-most in the NFL — a dangerous trait against an offense that thrives on extra possessions.
The lone offensive area where Pittsburgh holds a slim edge is third down. The Steelers convert at a 39.3 percent clip, ranking 14th, while Detroit sits 17th at 38.4 percent. That margin, however, is unlikely to offset the Lions’ ability to create chunk plays and finish drives.
Defensively, the picture becomes more complex. Neither unit has been dominant, but Pittsburgh’s defense has been more opportunistic. The Steelers allow 23.3 points per game (18th), slightly better than Detroit’s 24.6 (23rd), and have generated 24 takeaways, tied for third in the league. Detroit has forced 17 turnovers, tied for 11th.
Detroit does hold advantages against the run, allowing 106.7 yards per game (13th) compared to Pittsburgh’s 120.9 (19th). But the Lions’ pass defense remains a glaring concern. They are dead last in the NFL in explosive passes allowed, surrendering 54 completions of 20 yards or more. Alarmingly, half of those have come in the last four games. Since their Week 8 bye, Detroit ranks 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed, with opponents generating explosive gains on 20.3 percent of pass plays.
That vulnerability is compounded by inconsistency up front. The Lions have 39 sacks on the season, but 25 of them came in just five games. In their eight wins, Detroit has produced 28 sacks and a 41.1 percent pressure rate. In six losses, that number drops to 11 sacks and a 33.5 percent pressure rate. The pass rush has been the difference between control and collapse.
Interior pressure has regressed sharply from previous seasons. Alim McNeill leads Lions defensive tackles with an 11.2 percent pass rush win rate, ranking 33rd league-wide. In 2024, McNeill ranked sixth at 14.5 percent, and Detroit had multiple interior defenders above the 8.0 percent threshold. This season, no Lions defensive tackle has recreated that level of disruption.
Since Week 9, the Lions defense ranks 26th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. While they remain solid against the run, ranking 10th in explosive rush rate allowed, the passing defense has been increasingly exposed.
That trend matters against a Steelers team that may not be explosive overall but has shown flashes. Veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 508 yards over his last two games, signaling a willingness to attack vertically if given time.
Ultimately, this matchup hinges on whether Detroit’s elite offense can stay ahead of its defensive flaws. If the Lions protect the ball and maintain pressure, the numbers suggest they control the game. If Pittsburgh capitalizes on explosive pass opportunities and turnovers, the gap narrows quickly. On Sunday, analytics point toward Detroit — but only if consistency finally matches capability.