Jared Goff is NOT The Problem

The Detroit Lions keep finding themselves in the same frustrating position: scoring enough points to win, getting elite quarterback play, and still walking off the field with losses. As the season has worn on, one truth has become increasingly clear to anyone watching closely in Honolulu blue, Jared Goff is not the problem. The defense is.

Since Week 9, the Lions defense has quietly slid to the bottom of the NFL in several critical areas, and the numbers paint a troubling picture. Detroit ranks last in fourth-down defense over that span, allowing opponents to convert an alarming 82.4% of attempts (14 of 17). For comparison, Philadelphia — the gold standard defensively — has allowed conversions on just 20% of fourth downs in the same window. That gap alone tells the story of situational failures that flip games.

The struggles have been most pronounced against the run. Per Next Gen Stats, the Lions allowed the Steelers to rush for plus-113 yards over expected, the fifth-worst mark in any game this season. To put that into perspective, Detroit’s offense posted plus-141 rushing yards over expected against the Giants in Week 12 — the second-highest total in the league this year. One side is dominating; the other is getting overwhelmed.

Since Week 9, Detroit’s run defense has allowed 2.03 yards before contact per rush, tied for 30th in the NFL. Over the last two weeks, that number has ballooned to a league-worst 3.88 yards before contact. When opposing backs are untouched at the line of scrimmage.

The points reflect it. Since Week 12, the Lions are allowing 31.6 points per game, 29th in the NFL. From Weeks 15 to 16, Detroit surrendered a 60.7% rushing success rate, again ranking near the bottom. The defense has also allowed 30 third-down conversions since Week 12, the fourth-most in the league. Sustained drives mean fewer possessions for an offense that has consistently done its job.

And Goff has done far more than his job.

Over the last three weeks, the Lions have just one win despite Goff throwing for 1,007 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero turnovers. Against Dallas, he went 25 of 34 for 309 yards. Against the Rams, 334 yards and three scores. Against Pittsburgh, 364 yards and three touchdowns. Clean football. Elite production. Minimal reward.

Goff’s season-long résumé is just as strong. He has thrown for 4,036 yards (fourth in the NFL), 32 touchdowns (second), and just five interceptions. Since 2022, he leads all quarterbacks in passer rating at 104.3, ahead of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford. He is now just the sixth quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in three straight seasons, joining Drew Brees, Allen, Mahomes, Peyton Manning, and Dan Marino.

This is not a system quarterback being carried. Ben Johnson didn’t “make” Jared Goff — the numbers prove that. With Johnson, Goff has been excellent. Without him, he has been nearly identical. This season, Goff has multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in five losses, tied for the most such games in NFL history.

Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 23-4-1 when the defense forces two or more turnovers. That margin for error no longer exists. Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard insists nobody has lined up and run the ball down Detroit’s throat. The film, and the stats suggest otherwise.

If the season ended today, Detroit would rank with the third-highest DVOA of any team to miss the playoffs since 1978. That’s not on the quarterback. That’s on a defense that hasn’t held up its end.

If you’re going to point fingers and give blame to someone, I can promise you it shouldn’t be towards Jared Goff.