Spartans dominate the boards, but can they contain Indiana's potent offense and limit costly turnovers? A clash of strengths awaits.
WHO: No. 12 Michigan State Spartans (14-2, 4-1) vs Indiana Hoosiers (12-4, 3-2)
WHERE: Jack Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
WHEN: Tuesday, January 13, 7 PM EST
WATCH: NBC Sports Network (NBCSN) / Peacock
The Spartans enter this matchup after two straight divisional wins at home. First, Michigan State welcomed the USC Trojans into East Lansing last week and proceeded to run them out of town with their tails tucked between their legs. The Spartans followed that up with their third game in six days, hosting Northwestern — a team that loves to mess with Tom Izzo and Michigan State. After what started as a nail-biter, it turned into a ten-point Spartan victory.
Indiana heads into the game looking to nip a losing trend in the bud. The Hoosiers suffered their second Big Ten loss last week, falling by six points to the tenth-ranked, undefeated Nebraska Cornhuskers. Prior to that matchup, Indiana was riding a four-game winning streak that included two conference wins over Washington and Maryland.
While these two teams are separated by several spots in the rankings, only a couple of games truly separate them. Both teams bring advantages into the matchup. The Hoosiers rank 55th in the nation, averaging 84.5 points per game, compared to Michigan State’s 78.9 PPG, which ranks tied for 142nd nationally. Despite their scoring ability, both teams play at a slower pace, each ranking in the 200s nationally.
Indiana shoots the ball at a better clip than Michigan State, posting a 48.3% field goal percentage, ranking tied for 54th in the nation. The Hoosiers also average 10.6 made three-pointers per game, good for tied-22nd nationally. Comparatively, the Spartans have struggled from beyond the arc, averaging just 7.6 made threes per game, which ranks tied for 215th in the nation.
The shooting edge doesn’t stop there. Indiana is also much more efficient at the free-throw line, converting 78.2% of its attempts, the 11th-best mark in the nation. Michigan State will need to play strong, disciplined defense, keeping their hands to themselves and limiting Indiana’s trips to the stripe.
Reading those numbers might suggest an Indiana upset could be looming. However, while shooting isn’t the Spartans’ bread and butter, being bigger and stronger than their opponent is where Michigan State truly shines. The Spartans rank 6th nationally, averaging 39.9 rebounds per game, compared to Indiana’s 32.9, which ranks tied for 193rd.
Breaking it down even further, offensive rebounding — the stat that keeps on giving — heavily favors Michigan State. The Spartans rank tied for 15th in the nation, averaging 12.3 offensive rebounds per game, while Indiana averages just 8.3, ranking tied for 286th.
Michigan State will need to clean up some gaudy errors that have plagued them not only over the past few games but throughout the season — turnovers. The Spartans turn the ball over 12 times per game, ranking tied for 228th nationally. Indiana, meanwhile, takes better care of the ball, averaging just 10.1 turnovers per game, tied for 66th in the nation.
Prediction
This game is going to be tight. Expect a competitive first half filled with battles and lead changes. As the second half unfolds and the Izzone grows louder, the Spartans’ strength and rebounding edge should hold true at home.
Michigan State 72
Indiana 68