Someone Has to Win: Michigan State vs. Penn State – How to Watch and Predictions

“For one man to gain, another must lose.” — Seneca, Roman philosopher

The same can be said for a team, and this weekend there are two programs that have found themselves on the wrong side of that quote far too many times this season. To be frank, they’ve both been on the losing end every single time they’ve played a conference game in 2025. I’m talking, of course, about the upcoming battle for the Land Grant Trophy between the Michigan State Spartans and the Penn State Nittany Lions.

When: 3:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Streaming: Fubo

Location: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)

Both teams enter Saturday’s matchup sitting at an ugly 0–6 in Big Ten play. The similarities between these two seasons are uncanny — both the Spartans and Nittany Lions opened 3–0 against weak non-conference teams before dropping six straight in the Big Ten. Both came painfully close to getting that elusive first win last time out, but both failed to finish when it mattered most on defense.

So how did we get here?

For Penn State, things actually looked pretty good to start. The Nittany Lions won their first three games by a combined score of 132–17 over Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. But when Big Ten football began, so did the losing.

After a three-game skid, the program shocked many by firing longtime head coach James Franklin. The wild part was that the losses weren’t blowouts — they were heartbreakers: by six to Oregon, five to UCLA, and one to Northwestern. Those were winnable games, and that’s exactly what made the higher-ups lose patience.

Since the firing, the losses have kept coming under interim coach Terry Smith — another one-point loss to Iowa, then a 24-point blowout against Ohio State, and last week’s gut punch against No. 2 Indiana. Penn State had that game in their hands, needing just one defensive stop to win, and yet again they couldn’t deliver. As a wise man once said, “If you ain’t clutch, you ain’t much.”

Now at 3–6 (0–6 Big Ten), the Nittany Lions head into East Lansing looking to give Smith his first win and finally end the skid.

For Michigan State, it’s been just as bleak. Like Penn State, the Spartans started 3–0 with wins over Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State by a combined score of 109–70. Then everything fell apart.

The Spartans dropped their next five, none of which were even close — not a single one-score loss, and not much fight shown either. Finally, in their last game, head coach Jonathan Smith made a move and started redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic at quarterback, hoping to find any kind of spark.

And they did. The Spartans held their first fourth-quarter lead since September before their defense gave it away in the final moments of regulation and again in overtime. Still, it marked the first one-score Big Ten loss of the season — a small step, but maybe the start of something.

Despite the frustration and the noise around the program, Smith remains head coach. His seat has never been hotter, but this weekend presents a rare opportunity: a winnable game against another winless team.

Penn State -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline: Penn State -280

O/U: 49.5 (-110)

Team Totals: Penn State 28.5 (-120), Michigan State 20.5 (-120)

So, Vegas sees it roughly 29–21 Penn State.

While Penn State has shown they’re a bit more polished overall, I think this game will be closer than most expect. Michigan State showed some life last week behind Milivojevic, and coming off a bye week, I expect the Spartans’ defense to be ready. Both teams are desperate, and desperation usually leads to a scrappy, low-scoring game.

Final Score: Penn State 23, Michigan State 17

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