With one game still remaining on the 2025 season, Michigan State fans everywhere have already sprinted past this weekend and straight into the offseason. A desperation game at Ford Field is wedged between reality and what people actually care about now:

Who is going to be running this football program next year?

Jonathan Smith has been the Spartans’ coach for almost two full years, and instead of steering the program toward the promised land, the ship has crashed into the Mariana Trench of college football.

Smith currently holds a .348 winning percentage (8–15) at MSU. The Spartans haven’t won a single conference game this season. For the first time since entering the Big Ten, Michigan State has dropped eight straight conference games — and for the first time in school history, they’re staring down the barrel of losing nine conference games in one season.

This is rock bottom. And then the floor collapsed again.

The NCAA hit MSU with recruiting limitations after determining former Mel Tucker staffers Saeed Khalif and Brandon Jordan provided impermissible benefits totaling nearly $11,000. MSU was fined $30,000 plus 1.5% of the football program’s $58.6 million budget, per ESPN. Over the next three years, the Spartans will deal with reduced visits, restricted contact periods, and limited evaluation opportunities. In other words: rebuilding just got harder.

On top of that, Jonathan Smith isn’t cheap. He’s the 27th highest-paid coach in college football, earning $7.35 million a year. And if MSU fires him without cause after Dec. 1?

They owe him $33,033,125.

That’s the 21st-most expensive buyout in the sport.

So… will Jonathan Smith be coaching the Michigan State Spartans next year?

If you ask the fans, the answer is an easy absolutely not. It’s a fair stance when you’re watching the worst MSU football season in 70 years — and maybe the worst ever. Fans point to the Detroit Pistons as an example of how eating bad money early can actually turn a franchise around. Maybe MSU should follow suit, cut their losses, and start fresh.

But that logic cuts both ways. Sometimes sticking through the darkness matters. Dan Campbell was 0-13-1 at one point. Yes, that was Year 1, not Year 2, but the principle remains: patience is uncomfortable, but occasionally it pays off.

That’s as far as I can stretch the devil’s advocate argument.

Because in reality? I’m not in favor of keeping someone on the sideline who appears hopeless and helpless. Cut ties. Eat the contract. Try again.

Jonathan Smith didn’t exactly calm the waters when asked about his job security this week:

“In this landscape of college football, it is a solid question.” “I am still really confident in the people in the room.”

Then, when asked directly whether he’s been assured he’ll be back next year:

“No.”

So there’s no guarantee. No safety net. The future sits entirely in the hands of A.D. J. Batt, who now holds one of the biggest decisions in MSU football history. If you judge strictly by results and vibes, Smith would’ve been fired yesterday. But when you factor in the sanctions, the instability, and the price tag, keeping him doesn’t look quite as crazy.

My honest answer: Yes — unless a major donor group emerges to cover the buyout.

The record says fire him. The fanbase says fire him. The product on the field says fire him.

But the financials, the sanctions, and the timing all say he stays.

Right now, I’d put it at:

70% chance Jonathan Smith returns

30% chance MSU swallows the $33 million pill

If boosters step up, the decision flips. If they don’t, MSU rides the storm one more year.